NOTES on the ELECTION

Key Indicators (Organized by Hour (EST))

Some of this info is from memory, much of it is gleaned from sources around the web, sometime with citations, sometimes without.

5:00 PM

Media Elite Insiders Get First Look at Exit Polls - In 2004 the purveyors of exit polls didn't do a very good job of preventing leaks to the media. As a result, Democrats became ecstatic over early indications that Kerry was doing better than expected. It turned out the these exit polls had difficulty getting conservatives to participate (or tell the truth) to pollsters who were disproportionally young and female. In 2006 the exit pollers put these people in a locked room, took away their blackberrys and cell phones, and VIOLA! No leaks. Today they get their first briefing at 5 pm, where networks and journalists can begin the process of scouring over the information and deciding how much credibility exit polls merit. By all indications one should be very very skeptical of this data. Watch the drudgereport.com for early leaks.

6:00 PM

INDIANA closes in some areas and networks will start the prediction game. Eastern Indiana should favor McCain and results there come in early. Watch to see when returns from Gary and the Western Suburbs come in - as they have high numbers of working class democrats and a higher african-american population. Also, Kerry won Marion county (Indianapolis) and Obama would have to do the same. Small rural counties in Indiana usually go 3 to 1 for republican candidates. This could also be the first indication of turnout numbers and if this years polling has accurately predicted what the voting population looks like.

From Politico: "FRAUD ALERT. The Hoosier State will also provide an indication of whether the GOP claims of potential voter fraud are hype or a serious threat. Lake County, home of Gary and East Chicago, bungled the count during the May 6 primary, and good-government experts say a slowdown today or widespread allegations of shenanigans could augur serious problems around the country. Other counties with potential problems, according to experts: Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland); Palm Beach County, Fla., yet again; Denver; Richmond, Va."

Jonathan Martin adds: "Watch Marion and Hamilton. Marion, home to Indianapolis, is the largest county in the state and one filled with both African-Americans and moderate whites. Because of this mix, Kerry won here by two percentage points in 2004 en route to losing the state to Bush by about 20 points. Obama will almost certainly take Marion this time, but the question, again, is by how much? Running up a large margin here would offset the losses he's likely to take across southern Indiana. And just north of Marion, keep an eye on fast-growing Hamilton. This has been a Republcian stronghold, and Bush won 74-25. But as in other suburbs filled with newcomers, Obama is showing signs of strength. He's invested significant resources there in an effort to close the '04 gap. If Obama keeps his losses there under 10 percent, Republicans should worry."

NEW HAMPSHIRE - Watch to see how McCain is doing in the southern counties, Rockingham and Hillsbourough (where Manchester is). He needs these counties to win, and he wants to get Bush's 2004 margins - 52%

7:00 PM

INDIANA closes in all areas. Will the networks call it now?

VIRGINIA - the much hyped state for Obama. Obama needs to win this to give creedence to his ground game. GOTV operation should be at its best here for Obama, if we are to believe the hype. Obama should win the cities, Charlottesville, Richmond, Petersburg and in the now infamous northern suburbs surrounding Washington D.C. Watch Virginia Beach county where Obama needs to crack 40% of the vote.

Jonathan Martin of Politico writes, "Watch Fairfax and Newport News. Not only are they the two large localities, but they provide important indicators as to whether a Republican will win statewide. If McCain is only losing blue-trending Fairfax by 10 to 12 points, he'll have a shot to hold Virginia. Bush lost Fairfax by 8 in 2004 en route to carrying Virginia by eight points. Down in Tidewater, Kerry eked out a 4-point victory in Newport News in 2004. Obama is likely to do better in the city this time due to a strong African-American turnout. But what is key is his margin. We'll have a good sense of how much Obama has maximized black turnout, when we see how big his win is here, in a 43% African-American city."

GEORGIA - If Senate candidate Jim Martin (D) closes on Saxby Chambliss (R), then its likely because african-american turnout is huge. Traditionally, the black georgian electorate is 20 - 25% of the total voting population, but this year it has been as high as 30% in early voting. If it goes higher than 30% today, watch the Senate race closely as the Dems could get that 60th seat. But, that likely wouldn't happen right away, as each candidate needs at least 50% to avoid a run off in a month or so.

Jonathan Martin of Politico adds: "Watch DeKalb. Outside of Prince Georges in Maryland, there is no better example of the rise of the new black middle class than in this suburban Atlanta county. Kerry romped here in 2004, winning 73-26, but again watch to see how much he can both increase his margin and grow turnout. About 275,000 people voted in this fast-growing county four years ago. If Obama can shatter Kerry's performance here, a 55% black county, and in other black areas around Atlanta, it would make Georgia competitive."

KENTUCKY - Dems dream of knocking of McConnell. Doesn't look likely, but would be super sweet if it happened.

7:30 PM

OHIO - Man this state sucks (apologies to the Chapple family, who are 'da bomb). It was these douchebags who screwed it up last time (nice work on that, it worked out real well, didn't it?). John Kerry got 450,000 votes out of Cleveland, Obama needs at least that, and big numbers in Columbus and Toledo (go Mud Hens!) to get over the hump in this cesspool of a state. Watch Van Pert county to see if the base will turn out for McCain - Bush got 10,000 votes here in 2004, will McCain get close to that? There is no gay marriage ban on the ballot this time, so repubs can't count on rural homophobia to get victory this time.

NORTH CAROLINA (maybe closing at 8:30) - is in a dead heat according to the polls, but which polling scenario will be right? Is it a model that looks like 2004, or should pollsters be adding in more new voters who are young, african-american, etc. We should get a pretty good idea about the polls from North Carolina (much like Indiana, its in a deadlock). Watch Durham county, home to Duke University, to gauge his youth vote turnout (he needs to get more than what Kerry got here - 75,000 votes). Also, Catawba county in the west will give evidence of how working class whites are voting. No Democrat has gotten more than 37% of the vote here. Will Obama get close?

8:00 PM - OPEN THE FLOODGATES, HERE COMES THE DATA!!!

Journalism Prof Tom Edsall writes: "If McCain wins Pennsylvania while holding Florida and other states carried by George W. Bush in 2004, it's a whole new ball game, and a late night: you will have to wait for returns from Colorado, New Mexico (both 9 PM ET closings) and Nevada (10 PM), to have any real confidence in the outcome. The networks will not go anywhere near calling the race until the polls close on the West Coast at 11 PM. Barring the Pennsylvania-McCain scenario, the odds are that the winner will be known to anyone following the results once the states with 8 PM closings are in."

Politico adds: "SIGN MCCAIN IS IN HOT WATER. If Obama wins any one of the following states: Ohio (7:30 p.m.), Virginia (7 p.m.), North Carolina (7:30 p.m.) or Florida (8 p.m.)."

PENNSYLVANIA - the bellwether is Lackawanna county, which gave 44% to Bush in 2004. Obama needs to beat Kerry's 540,000 votes in Philadelphia.

FLORIDA - Dems have a big registration advantage here (660,000) but will these people actually vote? Watch Orange county and Pinellas county to see which way they will go - both of those counties have been tight in the past, going to the winner of the state overall.

MISSOURI - McCain needs to win in St. Charles County, where Bush got 59%. Obama needs to get more than the 37% Kerry won in Greene county, where the city of Springfield sits. Missouri has a record of picking presidents that’s hard to match, voting for the eventual winner in every election since 1904, with the exception of 1956, when it voted for Adlai Stevenson.

9:00 PM - LOTS OF STATES, AND HERE COMES THE WEST

COLORADO - Watch Arapahoe and Jefferson counties, which usually go repub, but have been getting more and more competitive.

NEW MEXICO - This is the state to gauge the hispanic vote for Obama. Rio Arribe county is nearly 80% Hispanic, and Kerry got 65%, and Clinton got 70% here.

LATE NIGHT INDICATORS:

HOUSE RACES - From Politico:

SIGN OF GOP MELTDOWN IN THE HOUSE (30-PLUS LOSSES). Look out for losses by relatively safe GOP House members such as Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (Mich.) or Rep. Scott Garrett (N.J.) then, later in the evening, Rep. Dan Lungren (Calif.) or Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (Calif.). If several go down, it will be a brutal night for House Republicans. If scandal-scarred Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) ekes out a victory, Republicans are in deep, deep trouble.

BAD, BUT NOT A WORST-CASE HOUSE SCENARIO (20-30 GOP LOSSES). Even if most of the aforementioned Republicans survive, Democrats could have better luck against Reps. John B. Shadegg (R-Ariz.), Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.), Mark Souder (R-Ind.), Sam Graves (R-Mo.), Dean Heller (R-Nev.) Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio), Henry Brown Jr. (R-S.C.), John Culberson (R-Texas), Michael T. McCaul (R-Texas), Virgil H. Goode (R-Va.) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.).

THE LAST OF MODERATES. The extinction of the House GOP in the Northeast will be complete if Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.)

NATIONAL YOUTH VOTE - YOUTHQUAKE. About 47 percent of eligible 18-to-24-year-olds voted in the 2004 election, a slight increase over 2000. Some experts suggest that number could be as a high as 60 percent this year. If exit polls show the youth vote hitting or exceeding that mark, look for a big Obama boost.

ALASKA. If the election is decided by 1 a.m., anyone still awake will be treated to a political nightcap: the result of a tight race between Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, now a convicted felon, and Democrat Mark Begich. The Stevens race isn't the only one worth staying up for — 35-year House GOP veteran Don Young is also struggling to win reelection.