My Predictions Hit the Mark (mostly)

A week out I predicted the outcome of several swing states. Below is a chart that summarizes how I did. Check it.

Tyler's Prediction / Actual / Difference

FL - Obama by 2% / 2.2% / +.2%
OH - Obama by 4% / 3.9% / -.1%
PA - Obama by 6% / 10.3% / +4.3%
IN - McCain by 1% / Obama 0.9% / +1.9%
MO - Obama by 1% / McCain .2% / -1.2%
NH - Obama by 4% / 10.5% / +6.5%
NV - Obama by 3% / 12.4% / +9.4%
CO - Obama by 5% / 7.7% / +2.7%
MT - McCain by 4% / 2.5% / -1.5%
ND - McCain by 6% / 8.6% / +2.6%
VA - Obama by 4% / 4.5% / +.5%
NC - Obama by 1% / .4% / -.6%
IA - Obama by 4% / 9.3% / +5.3%
WV - McCain by 6% / 13.1% / +7.1%
GA - McCain by 4% / 5.5% / +1.5%

TOTAL 364 / 364 / Right On!!!

So, to summarize, it looks like the majority of the pollsters did a good job of measuring the number of likely voters, because I based much of my prediction on those numbers and I got pretty close. Interestingly, I thought this election was going to be closer than it was (not by electoral votes, but by the margin of victory in individual states). Nevada and Pennsylvania and West Virginia were not nearly as close as I thought they would be. But I nailed Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia - picking both the winner and the winning percentage.

And, to continue bragging, if Missouri holds, I correctly predicted Obama's 364 electoral vote total. But I did miss on Indiana and Missouri, but only barely.

The Lesson from this election - those pollsters know what they are doing, especially when you look at all the numbers together. Thanks to Nate Silver, who must be basking in the limelight of his success right now.