Thursday, October 30, 2008

This is some bullshit

I really can't believe that the Treasury would try something like this. Am I missing something? Why, in the world, is it fair for Banks to shell out public money in dividends to stockholders? Seriously, I just can't see the rationale for this. Can anybody fill me in?

Swing State Predictions - My 2 Cents.

You know, I did pretty well in predicting the VP choices. I nailed the Biden pick, which was pretty easy, I think. And I was close in my pick of Joe Leiberman...which, of course, failed to predict the actual selection of Sarah Palin but nailed the preferred choice of who McCain really wanted to pick - at least according to several sources close to the McCain campaign (his right hand man, Lindsey Graham, for example). I guess I underestimated how badly he needed to consolidate his base. Too bad McCain wasn't more independent, a la McCain 2000. Of course, it is easy to second guess.

Hence, I give you my best predictions for the swing states, one week out:

FL - Obama by 2%
OH - Obama by 4%
PA - Obama by 6%
IN - McCain by 1%
MO - Obama by 1%
NH - Obama by 4%
NV - Obama by 3%
CO - Obama by 5%
MT - McCain by 4%
ND - McCain by 6%
VA - Obama by 4%
NC - Obama by 1%
IA - Obama by 4%
WV - McCain by 6%
GA - McCain by 4%

Obama = 364

Noticeably, I didn't put MI, MN, or WI on those lists, because I think that in the end the Great Lakes states will swing pretty hard for Obama. They, as is true of all states, are big on blue collar voters who will vote 'economy' this cycle - but, unlike southern states, they won't be swayed by last minute ideological arguments by the McCain campaign (Obama is a socialist! Yow!) because they are much more pro-Labor than other states.

DISCLAIMER - The above predictions are based on recent polls - mitigated by my sense of the GOTV (Get Out The Vote) operations on both sides. Republican turnout in early voting states is sluggish (check out the county by county totals for Oregon),



...but I can't discount the fact that Republican micro-targeting efforts delivered for Bush 2004 in major ways. I know evangelicals aren't as excited about McCain, but with Palin on the ticket, and with the ideological nature of the rhetoric in the campaign rallys, I think the base will still show up. The independents, however, are another matter.

I see Independents breaking hard for Obama - because of his polished communication skills, his monetary advantage (which, is disgusting in a democracy!) and because of his relentlessly hopeful message. Of course, the key factor is that the economy is the driving issue - helping Barack Obama. On the Democratic side, despite the optimistic predictions, I remain skeptical about the youth vote and the 'new registrant, first time voter' numbers going as high as some predict. In the past, these people just have never really shown up. I do believe we will see marked increases in both these groups, but I am hesitant to predict a major wave. BUT, if both of these groups do turn out and achieve a bump of 15% or higher, then we could be looking at a sweeping electoral college victory for Obama, perhaps upwards of 390 electoral college votes.

Lastly, I want to reiterate my prediction that Independents will break for Obama, and, most importantly, African Americans will break almost exclusively for Obama and they will turn out in almost unprecedented numbers.

And, if Barack Obama loses, I am going to either shoot myself or become a farmer.

The Press Corp Going Nuts - A New Reality Show?


So during the last couple of presidential elections I have heard numerous horror stories about how difficult it is to cover a presidential campaign, for months and months on end, only to have the whole thing end quickly and abruptly. Julia Ioffe's article in The New Republic does a good job of highlighting some of the weird social relations that journalists have with each other (not to mention the candidates and the campaign staff) while working, playing, traveling, and eating together for the two years it takes to complete a campaign.

In that documentary film, "Journeys with George," I remember Bush interacting with reporters and acting all flirty with Nancy Pelosi's daughter. In this article, Ryan Lizza intimates that journalists get a little catty and territorial on the Obama Press plane. I think I see a reality show in the making.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Midnight Regulations?

George W. Bush vowed not to push through a series of bureaucratic regulations right before he left office. He said he would forbid his agency heads for signing new or controversial rules and regs after Nov. 1. Will he keep his promise? Will he push through a bunch of crap right before Nov. 1?

On today's Diane Rehm Show her guests noted that Bush's midnight regs are about weakening the Endangered Species Act, less regs on workplace safety in the Labor Department, and some concerning protecting doctors who refuse to perform abortions.

So keep an eye out for sketchy rule changes.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Inside the McCain Campaign

This NY Times Magazine article pretty much sums up the candidate's campaign to date. I'm still waiting for a similar expose on the Obama campaign - a campaign that hasn't leaked any 'inside baseball' type stories (at least that I have seen).

Sunday, October 26, 2008

George Packer on Blogger political paranoia

Wading for a few minutes through the sewage of these Web sites reminds me uncannily of the time I’ve spent having political discussions in certain living rooms and coffee shops in Baghdad. The mental atmosphere is exactly the same—the wild fantasies presented as obvious truth, the patterns seen by those few with the courage and wisdom to see, the amused pity for anyone weak-minded enough to be skeptical, the logic that turns counter-evidence into evidence and every random piece of information into a worldwide conspiracy. Above all, the seething resentment, the mix of arrogance and impotent rage that burns at the heart of the paranoid style in politics.

The problem isn’t lack of education—it’s that of a self-isolating political subculture gone rancid. I heard an Iraqi engineer claim that American soldiers allowed Kuwaitis to steal hundreds of Iraqi cars as revenge for the first Gulf War. I heard a Shiite cleric argue that the Kerry campaign was behind suicide bombings. Bloggers like Andrew McCarthy, a former federal prosecutor who peddled the Ayers theory, and Ann Althouse, a law professor who pushed the plastic-device story, hold diametrically opposed views to those of Islamists and Arab nationalists. But their habits of mind are just the same.

Sneaky Ways to Get Out the Vote

Monday, October 20, 2008

Undecided??? How the hell can you be undecided?

"You are undecided... how can that happen?" This thought enters my mind almost everytime we have an election, but is more pronounced during presidential election years. For those of us who follow politics, who think about elections, and who have the slightest amount of social interaction with friends and neighbors, to be undecided in a race between Barack Obama and John McCain seems tantamount to not having a pulse.

They are so different!
You have had TWO YEARS to decide!
WTF are you looking for?

David Sedaris, in this month's New Yorker, put it this way:

"I don’t know that it was always this way, but, for as long as I can remember, just as we move into the final weeks of the Presidential campaign the focus shifts to the undecided voters. “Who are they?” the news anchors ask. “And how might they determine the outcome of this election?”

Then you’ll see this man or woman— someone, I always think, who looks very happy to be on TV. “Well, Charlie,” they say, “I’ve gone back and forth on the issues and whatnot, but I just can’t seem to make up my mind!” Some insist that there’s very little difference between candidate A and candidate B. Others claim that they’re with A on defense and health care but are leaning toward B when it comes to the economy.

I look at these people and can’t quite believe that they exist. Are they professional actors? I wonder. Or are they simply laymen who want a lot of attention?

To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. “Can I interest you in the chicken?” she asks. “Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?”

To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked."

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Conservative Implosion, or GOP Implosion

Clearly, the Republicans are starting to look like a party in disarray. Is it stale ideas, as David Brooks likes to argue, or is it a Bush hangover, wherein the party (and the ideals it espouses) will reemerge after an election cycle or two.

This guy thinks it may well be a problem with the movement, a problem with the eggheads.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Bradley J. Schlotzman - Party Hack

So, I admit, its easy to get caught up in the election. We all want our side to win. But most of us, at least those of us with some type of value system that separates right from wrong, can manage to separate our personal politics from our professional obligations. I do this all the time, when I teach.

But, Bradley J. Schlotzman, who is earning himself quite the reputation (move over Robert Novak, there's a new 'partisan douchebag in chief in washington'), just leaked word that the Department of Justice is investigating ACORN - giving more fodder to those who see "democracy in peril" with a few erroneous voter registration forms. This is the second time that this government official has blatantly disregarded the directives of the department of justice to instigate an investigation weeks before an election, thereby injecting a partisan political agenda into the DOJ's real 'law and order' business.

Of course, you might remember, this isn't the first time that an investigation into voter registration has 'suddenly popped up' right before the election. Check out the following video of Pat Leahy, trying to get to the bottom of this the last time it happened:




Once again, a Bush crony is using his position of power to put the GOPs interests ahead of the nations interest, and this at a time when the DOJ is suffering from a substantial credibility deficit. WTF?

I might add, that in the past, there has been zero evidence of voter registration fraud that actually resulted in real voter fraud. This despite an organized, well-funded, ideologically driven effort to find such a conspiracy.

Where there is no smoke, there is no fire, my friends.

The real lesson from ACORN's voter registration fraud is that only volunteers (not paid employees) should register people to vote.

Palin is a Rovian Candidate - but not quite up to Par.

Sarah Palin is a Rovian candidate, but she doesn't have the broader populist appeal that George W. Bush had. This article in Harpers argues that she fails not because of her shocking ignorance, like most of us assume, but because she worships the false god of Patriotism over her religion, thus alienating mainstream protestants, a key swing constituent of the GOP's religious base (southern baptist, born-again evangelicals, and mainstream protestants).

Very interesting.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Blast from the Past

A fascinating interview of Ferraro and H. W. Bush, side by side, reflecting on their 1984 debate.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

More Links - Financial Meltdown

How the regulators and fed and treasury could miss this. Link.

What Happened. Link.

Another good Pearlstein column.