Swing State Predictions - My 2 Cents.

You know, I did pretty well in predicting the VP choices. I nailed the Biden pick, which was pretty easy, I think. And I was close in my pick of Joe Leiberman...which, of course, failed to predict the actual selection of Sarah Palin but nailed the preferred choice of who McCain really wanted to pick - at least according to several sources close to the McCain campaign (his right hand man, Lindsey Graham, for example). I guess I underestimated how badly he needed to consolidate his base. Too bad McCain wasn't more independent, a la McCain 2000. Of course, it is easy to second guess.

Hence, I give you my best predictions for the swing states, one week out:

FL - Obama by 2%
OH - Obama by 4%
PA - Obama by 6%
IN - McCain by 1%
MO - Obama by 1%
NH - Obama by 4%
NV - Obama by 3%
CO - Obama by 5%
MT - McCain by 4%
ND - McCain by 6%
VA - Obama by 4%
NC - Obama by 1%
IA - Obama by 4%
WV - McCain by 6%
GA - McCain by 4%

Obama = 364

Noticeably, I didn't put MI, MN, or WI on those lists, because I think that in the end the Great Lakes states will swing pretty hard for Obama. They, as is true of all states, are big on blue collar voters who will vote 'economy' this cycle - but, unlike southern states, they won't be swayed by last minute ideological arguments by the McCain campaign (Obama is a socialist! Yow!) because they are much more pro-Labor than other states.

DISCLAIMER - The above predictions are based on recent polls - mitigated by my sense of the GOTV (Get Out The Vote) operations on both sides. Republican turnout in early voting states is sluggish (check out the county by county totals for Oregon),



...but I can't discount the fact that Republican micro-targeting efforts delivered for Bush 2004 in major ways. I know evangelicals aren't as excited about McCain, but with Palin on the ticket, and with the ideological nature of the rhetoric in the campaign rallys, I think the base will still show up. The independents, however, are another matter.

I see Independents breaking hard for Obama - because of his polished communication skills, his monetary advantage (which, is disgusting in a democracy!) and because of his relentlessly hopeful message. Of course, the key factor is that the economy is the driving issue - helping Barack Obama. On the Democratic side, despite the optimistic predictions, I remain skeptical about the youth vote and the 'new registrant, first time voter' numbers going as high as some predict. In the past, these people just have never really shown up. I do believe we will see marked increases in both these groups, but I am hesitant to predict a major wave. BUT, if both of these groups do turn out and achieve a bump of 15% or higher, then we could be looking at a sweeping electoral college victory for Obama, perhaps upwards of 390 electoral college votes.

Lastly, I want to reiterate my prediction that Independents will break for Obama, and, most importantly, African Americans will break almost exclusively for Obama and they will turn out in almost unprecedented numbers.

And, if Barack Obama loses, I am going to either shoot myself or become a farmer.