March Madness

Hello college basketball fans!

Welcome to the 2009 Gratz Family Spectacular! For the next three weeks you will be experiencing the glory, the tears, the sweat, and the heartbreak that accompanies the 2009 NCAA College Basketball Tournament. To begin your journey, you must prepare yourself for the roller-coaster ride that occurs each March. This month all of you will experience the typical (and inevitable signs) that you are participating in the Gratz Family Spectacular (hearby referred to as GFS). These include (but are not limited to):

1. A series of coordinated screams and shouts, emanating simultaneously from Lansing, MI and San Ramon, CA.
2. A normally polite kindergarten teacher screaming "Turney!" when a certain spouse drops the "F bomb" in front of both guests and kids.
3. The jumping up and down around a living room, resulting in A) one spilled beverage B) a pulled muscle or tweaked knee, or C) the scaring of a small child or pet.
4. A discernible increase in the amount (and desperate nature) of basketball-related daily prayer.
5. Some hysterical crying by an "unnamed" Washington fan in Ann Arbor, MI.
6. Several end-of-weekend updates, written by the administrator of the Gratz Family Spectacular (with our own group results).

Without further adieu, the players in this years GFS and their brackets:


Lynne "Superfox" Gratz, playing the "BL's Bracket." --- Hoping to follow up a strong debut in the 2008 Tournament, baby Lynne is relying on a combination of savy expertise, roll-the-dice logic, and brazen but proven luck. Will she be able to follow up her savvy rookie performance of last year, or will 2009 be the year of the sophomore curse for this brown-haired beauty?


Turney "TG" Gratz, playing the "TG" Bracket. --- The dean of the GFS, this year the papa bear has some stiff competition from dudes and daughters alike. The million dollar question hinges on if Turney will be blinded by the "green curtain" - that indefatigable and persistent urge to pick Michigan State to advance, advance, and advance. Tune in on Thursday at noon to see if Turney beat the green curtain, or if St. Patrick's day will again cast a green hue on Lansing that will last the rest of March.


Jeanne "Jeanne G" Gratz, playing the "Jeanne" bracket. --- Queen of all Michigan State fans, this year Jeanne hopes to draw on a secret source of predictive power that only the genius possess and the insane lament. Jeanne likes to play it cool, but experts know that a basketball god visited Jeanne last year (taking the form of Drew Neitzel) who told her the winner of the next ten tournaments. Only time will tell if Jeanne will choose to use her secrets this year, or if she will save it for another run.


Rebecca "pringle_rebecca" Pringle, playing the "go green!" bracket --- Known is some parts as the 'master of multitasking' this MSU grad pretends to be only limitedly interested in watching 19 year old kids throw a ball around for 40 minutes. But the smartest observers know that while it may seem like she is simultaneously tending to 1-3 excited offspring, teleconferencing a work meeting, and baking chicken nuggets, she actually is keenly following the college basketball emanating from the other room. Don't forget your march maxim: Best Brackets bet on Beck!


Lauren "leitaolauren" Leitao, playing the "L-Train" bracket. --- Listen up, all you chicagoans riding public transportation! Don't underestimate just how far the L train will go! L train is gonna run her bracket fast and hard, and she's gonna go so far you better not miss the stop! She's bringing some wicked moves, straight from Morseland all the way up and down your sh*t, so you kids better bring your A game or just step off before the L train puts the smack down on your brackets. Yeaauuuhhhh.


Danny "dannyleitao" Leitao, playing the "D Money" bracket. --- The second of our Chicago based participants, D money plans to take the L train to school!!! While it may be tempting to focus on the "chicago v. chicago" match between D money and the L train, don't sleep on his chances to win it all. Opponents know that to beat D money you need to distract him with meat. Ribs, Chicken, Lamb, Pork, Braziliian "all you can eat barbeque" served on swords...you better bring out all the stops to get D money to the point where he is no longer paying attention to his brackets, and is only "eating for pain."


Conrad William "cdub" Pringle, playing the "Get your Suton for the Dance" bracket. --- This year cdub has to be considered the odds-on favorite and savvy veteran. While upstarts might be tempted to pick a newcomer, smart money has cdub dancing all the way. But, as was true for the papa bear, Cdub has to overcome the blinding brightness of the green curtain. This year we ask, will Cdub benefit from being one of the truest fans, the most dedicated disciples of the Church of Izzo, and get rewarded for his faith? Nobody in Ann Arbor is sure which way Cdub will play it...will he pick MSU to go all the way, or will his basketball IQ overcome his MSU heart? Its a true toss up.


Bacon "my_bacon_log" Explosion, playing "Bacon's Picks" bracket. --- This year the Bacon Explosion gained fame at the Superbowl, where this giant meat torpedo delighted audiences with his 7000+ calories and 500+ grams of fat. This March the Bacon Explosion has returned - not in actual form - but as a way for the rest of the field to see how the "favorites" are doing. Bacon Explosion picked the favored seed in every match-up, representing the picks of the tournament committee who placed the field. Bacon is a good benchmark for everyone. Did you beat the Bacon? Or did Bacon beat you? Did you eat the Bacon? Will the Bacon get eaten by the D money meat master? Only time will tell.


And finally, your administrator, Tyler "tacornelius" Cornelius, playing the "Pac 10 Represents (Tyler's picks)" bracket. --- A tried and true Washington fan, Tyler suffers from an acute case of home team optimism. While others suffer from green curtains, Tyler's curtains are purple (and so is the rest of his furniture). Incapable of looking at a Pac 10 game objectively, Tyler has picked all of the Pac 10 teams to advance in the first round, and three to make the sweet 16. Would anyone in their right mind pick this outcome, especially this year? Probably not, but nonetheless, he can't help it. So it goes.

So there you have it....

Will MSU run long and deep into March?
Will the L train take all of D Money's mojo?
Will the superfox wipe the floor with the competition (like last year)?
Will Washington fans around the world rejoice?

We'll see...very soon!

Sincerely,

Your Administrator

A Few Numbers Worth A Thousand Words

I saw this passage quoted in Dan Froomkin's White House Blog this morning:

Mark Knoller of CBS News tallies Bush's final numbers:

"U.S. Military Deaths In Iraq: 4,228.

"U.S. Military Deaths In Afghanistan: 634.

"Number Of Visits To Camp David: 149, totaling all or part of 487 days.

"Number Of Visits To His Texas Ranch: 77, totaling all or part of 490 days.

"Number Of Visits To His Parents' Home In Kennebunkport, Maine: 11, totaling all or part of 43 days."

And yes, that totals 1,020 days -- or just over 34 percent of his 2,992-day presidency. Ronald Reagan, the previously most-vacationing president ever, clocked a mere 866 days during his two terms.

Inauguration Day

Sorry for the long silence. There has been lots to do. Today there was a ton of media coverage of the Obamas, but I found the following article to be the best I read.

The article, titled "Restless Searcher On an Improbable Path" by Steve Maraniss, was also recommended by The Fix.

Boycott Whole Foods

My pal Emily just informed me of yet another example of how big grocery store chains are trying to put smaller, local producers out of business. This time its Whole Foods, also known as "Whole Paycheck," who is actively working to undermine local and regional food systems.

I enjoy shopping for many of the products that Whole Foods sells, but they are not my only option, and so I plan to move all of my patronage somewhere else. In Ann Arbor that is usually Buschs (where we do most of our shopping now), but it could also be Plum Market, the Peoples Food Coop, Sparrow Market, or the Produce Station - all locally owned businesses.

Emily's Link: http://newseasonsmarket.blogspot.com/

Below is my letter to whole foods, submitted on their Customer Service website.

To Whom It May Concern:

I recently learned of your attempts to get information about the New Seasons Market in Portland, OR. While I no longer live in Portland, I admire New Season's attempts at creating a regional food system, and I support local producers whenever possible. Your company has improved on some of its policies, most notably when embarrassed by bad publicity or legal problems, yet you seem intent on harming local communities with your aggressive business tactics, particularly in acquiring smaller companies like Wild Oats. Your actions threaten to undermine regional production and distribution systems by discouraging competition.

In virtue of your aggressive attempts to get information about New Seasons, I feel I am forced to reconsider my patronage of your stores. Moreover, I wonder how you might justify such unfair attacks against such a "small fish in a large pond." Was it not so long ago that your company was that size?

We live in a world where "moral" considerations are poorly valued in the marketplace. So I intend to voice my displeasure where I can, with my shopping dollars. Whole Foods is now becoming synonymous with unfair business practices, and embarrassing behavior by its leadership.

I plan to spread the word among my family and friends that Whole Foods is no longer a company with a conscience, no longer a company that I can trust.

Tyler Cornelius
Ann Arbor, MI

Why I'm In A Good Mood

I am in a good mood because I am finally able to see a headline like this:

Obama Vows to Cut Budget Waste

Cutting government waste is not a signature, liberal, "Democratic Party" issue, some might say. But I beg to differ. So much of what past Democrats and Republicans have done is redistribute money upwards - to companies, to stock holders, to the middle class, to those who already have enough to be comfortable. "Help the middle class, shit on the poorest" could have been the mantra of both parties. My hope is that Obama does a whole lot less of this. The example of government waste that the author above cited in the article brings joy to my heart! Obama plans to cut wasteful subsidies to big agribusiness producers. The same people who bring to market loads of cheap, unhealthy corn syrup that is practically madel of petroleum. I couldn't have picked a better example myself, what a good place to start! Why haven't Democrats done this before? Because they have been in the pocket of the agribusiness lobby. And the following headline gives me hope that change really has come to America, even if it is starting out kind of slow.

Obama to Limit Inaugural Donations

Seriously, isn't this great? A president for all the people. Pinch me before I wake up.

Testimonial

From a good friend:

last election day, it rained.

it was my third time voting in a major election. the first time, in 2000, i had planned not to vote at all. when i shared my designs with my roommate, deirdra, she nearly lost it. she was active in the college democrats. she understood voting to be a privilege that she couldn’t wait each time to exercise. i’ll never forget the incredulous look on her face.

so i registered, and i went. a guy in a hooded sweatshirt outside my polling place at david rittenhouse laboratories handed me a ralph nader pamphlet on my way in. “vote your conscience,” he said to me gravely. he might have even patted me earnestly on the shoulder, the way i remember the feeling. he couldn’t have known that i had almost no voter conscience at all. but still, i didn’t forget what he had said. when i got to the voting booth, i seriously considered voting for ralph nader before, with a pounding heart, i marked “al gore/joseph lieberman” instead. i didn’t vote for a single other thing on that ballot. i left all the rest of it blank, front and back. i had grown up in michigan, but i was voting for my first time ever at college in philadelphia. i didn’t know most of what was going on.

i can’t remember now my experience the next day. i just know what other americans know: counts and recounts, gore winning the popular vote, something rotten in the state of florida. i can’t imagine that in the short period of time between when deirdra convinced me to register and when george w. bush gave his first acceptance speech, i had come to care much at all.

four years later i was in graduate school, and, by then, a full term under president bush and a year in the graduate employees’ organization—the graduate teachers’ union at the university of michigan—had changed me. through geo, i was active in the effort to defeat proposal 2, an amendment to the michigan constitution that would prevent same-sex couples anywhere in the state from ever exercising their right to legal marriage. this time, when i went to fill out my ballot, my heart pounded again. this time, i know i bubbled in at least two spots: one on the front, and one on the back. and when i left my polling place, surrounded by the euphoria of having voted again—after spending weeks involved in an organizing campaign in a liberal town—i couldn’t imagine that what i had bubbled in with my black marker would do anything but make itself manifest, immediately and definitively, in the world around me.

somehow, on the night of november 2, 2004, i ended up on my parents’ couch in plymouth, michigan, watching the election returns alone. i remember sitting up all night with carmen harlan and devin scillian on local 4, until i couldn’t sit up anymore. then i remember lying down, eventually closing my eyes, falling asleep with the tv still on, nervous that, after four years of a bush administration, the results were not more obviously in favor of john kerry. i woke up the next morning to the news that kerry had conceded, and there, alone on my parents’ couch, i cried.

in two years, another proposal 2 threatened again the equity and access of the people of the state of michigan. determined to play some part in protecting affirmative action, i signed up to hand out anti-prop-2 literature outside forsythe middle school early on election day morning. i got there a few minutes late, so i decided to make it up by staying for a second block of time. just as the shifts were changing, it started to rain. i didn’t have an umbrella or raincoat, but it didn’t matter to me. for the first time since deirdra had submitted my voter registration in that first year of the new millenium, i was actively engaged in the process of voting, and well before i fed my own ballot into the machine.

when the crowds thinned out at forsythe, they moved me to bach elementary school. it was raining harder when i got to bach, and a lot of voters walking into the school gave me sympathetic looks as they walked past. a few of them even thanked me, which just about made my day, until there, on the corner of fourth and jefferson, a miracle happened. a man in a green car drove up next to me. he was wearing a gray business suit. i recognized him from when he had passed me before without speaking, on his way into the polling place. the man rolled down his window and handed me a small black umbrella. i didn’t know him, and earlier he had not said a word, so when i looked at him confused, he said simply, “i knew i had an extra one in my car. you looked like you could use it.” i smiled and thanked him, and as he drove away, i stood there on the corner of fourth and jefferson, underneath a small, black umbrella in the rain, and cried.

by yesterday, what was evident was that when i voted in the united states of america, the opposite always came to pass. two terms of a bush presidency, two intolerant proposal 2s, and all i knew to do in the weeks leading up to this election was to expect nothing. this year, the one thing i was sure of was that i refused to be alone. so after marking my ballot completely, front and back, i went to the geo office—the birthplace of my radicalism—and watched, with a few dozen other people, as my magic ballot marker worked, before my very eyes, for the first time ever.

my initial tears, it occurs to me now, were from a release of months of nervous energy. i realized then that i had not let myself believe anything: that barack obama would be elected president of the united states of america, or that he wouldn’t. i realized that i had been storing inside my body both hope and dismay. that for the last four years—from the moment i cried one morning on my parents’ couch, to the moment i was crying now—i had refused to think much about the presidency at all.

my second tears were because something i had bubbled in with a real, magic marker had, for once, come to pass. my third tears were for deirdra, because she had talked me into registering to exercise this privilege all those years ago. my fourth tears were because no person of color had ever before been elected president of the united states of america. my fifth tears were because barack obama just had, and his own grandmother had passed away just in time not to see it. my sixth tears were because alyssa touched me on the shoulder, and when i managed to put my head up to look at her, tears were streaming down her face, too. my seventh tears were because i glanced up from alyssa and saw jesse jackson crying on msnbc. my eighth tears were because this time, i was not alone. because every time i was about to stop crying, i looked around—in this birthplace of my radicalism—and there was megan, and tyler, and urmila, and charles, and paul, and kiara, and colleen, and they were crying, too. because for the first time in a long time—and i guess, for me, the first time ever—the person we had voted for had won. and that made us feel like we had won, too.

pulling away from a long, teary hug with me, tyler had shaken his head. “it’s been a long eight years,” he said, with a look on his face that told me his body, for all that time, had been storing both hope and dismay.

“no,” i responded, matching his expression, because i knew exactly what it meant. “it’s been a lot longer than that.”

My Predictions Hit the Mark (mostly)

A week out I predicted the outcome of several swing states. Below is a chart that summarizes how I did. Check it.

Tyler's Prediction / Actual / Difference

FL - Obama by 2% / 2.2% / +.2%
OH - Obama by 4% / 3.9% / -.1%
PA - Obama by 6% / 10.3% / +4.3%
IN - McCain by 1% / Obama 0.9% / +1.9%
MO - Obama by 1% / McCain .2% / -1.2%
NH - Obama by 4% / 10.5% / +6.5%
NV - Obama by 3% / 12.4% / +9.4%
CO - Obama by 5% / 7.7% / +2.7%
MT - McCain by 4% / 2.5% / -1.5%
ND - McCain by 6% / 8.6% / +2.6%
VA - Obama by 4% / 4.5% / +.5%
NC - Obama by 1% / .4% / -.6%
IA - Obama by 4% / 9.3% / +5.3%
WV - McCain by 6% / 13.1% / +7.1%
GA - McCain by 4% / 5.5% / +1.5%

TOTAL 364 / 364 / Right On!!!

So, to summarize, it looks like the majority of the pollsters did a good job of measuring the number of likely voters, because I based much of my prediction on those numbers and I got pretty close. Interestingly, I thought this election was going to be closer than it was (not by electoral votes, but by the margin of victory in individual states). Nevada and Pennsylvania and West Virginia were not nearly as close as I thought they would be. But I nailed Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia - picking both the winner and the winning percentage.

And, to continue bragging, if Missouri holds, I correctly predicted Obama's 364 electoral vote total. But I did miss on Indiana and Missouri, but only barely.

The Lesson from this election - those pollsters know what they are doing, especially when you look at all the numbers together. Thanks to Nate Silver, who must be basking in the limelight of his success right now.