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Monday, November 2, 2009
Monday, August 3, 2009
Gates Takes Advantage of the Controversy
It turns out Henry Louis Gates Jr. will be making a study about racial profiling - a great way to turn the controversy into something positive. One had to guess that this was coming. If he does make a documentary instead of a book, then more power to him. If he can secure distribution of the film widely, like Michael Moore did with his last couple of films, then maybe we can hope that some good comes of the incident.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Why I Study American Culture: Two days in the News
The day before yesterday I was flabbergasted to see that Skip Gates, the preeminent senior Professor at Harvard had been handcuffed and arrested, seemingly a victim of a police officer who didn’t appreciate an “uppity attitude” from a black man, even one who was profiled in his own home, after producing a university I.D..
Who knows how angry Prof. Gates might have been, or what he did or did not say, but you can bet your ass that a senior white professor wouldn’t have been cuffed and arrested for showing his displeasure. Hence, in the circus-show that is our American mass media, we now have an opportunity to discuss several important, salient social issues: the current status of race relations in the Obama era, how social psychology explains more subtle, almost unconscious forms of racism (in other words, why the officer might have unwittingly have expected Prof. Gates to be more deferential), and the presence and practice of race-based profiling by law enforcement.
Obama even weighed in saying that the cops acted “stupidly” in arresting Prof. Gates. So now, if you look on the internet or the TV, there are a lot of talking heads weighing in on the issue. Personally, I’m afraid to watch Fox News (or anybody else for that matter), but at the very least, I welcome the discussion. I’m curious to see how it goes.
Decent coverage of the incident exists here.
On a different, but related, note - yesterday, I read about how the most popular, famous, sideline reporter in sports journalism, Erin Andrews of ESPN fame, was secretly videotaped while changing clothes in her hotel room. Videotaping anybody in their hotel room is an invasion of privacy, but Andrews was filmed when she was completely naked. The low-life who committed this act then had the audacity to put it on the web – where it was quickly duplicated and spread.
If you hadn’t guessed, Erin Andrews is very beautiful (which is, perhaps, a prerequisite for becoming one of the top female reporters at ESPN). I feel sad for her personally, but I feel even more sad for the message this sends to every other woman who is working in a male-dominated industry (like professional and college sports reporting). They are likely feeling something similar to what Andrews is feeling: Objectified. Devalued.
For a teacher like myself, this incident provides yet another opportunity to discuss how the category of “gender” is useful in describing the power relations that structure our everyday lives. In this incident we gain insight on how maleness and masculinity are operating in sports culture. We get a reminder of how pervasive patriarchy is. And for the sports fans out there, we get a chance to discuss (albeit briefly and not using too many big words) why it may not be appropriate for ESPN to constantly focus on her looks, her body, her brand – ostensibly done with her consent (but clearly not her pleasure) in order to appeal to their male viewers.
This second controversy offers another “teachable” moment. Like the Skip Gates incident, the Erin Andrews incident is certainly regrettable. But, because they attract so much attention, they provide interesting and accessible cases for us all to pontificate about how gender and race touch our everyday lives. Just be careful where you look for a serious discussion of these issues. The clowns on the television rarely offer much in the way of thoughtful analysis. That is where us teachers can step in to fill the gap.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Monday, May 18, 2009
May Menu
From my email to Lynne, earlier today:
Dear Superfox,
Since you like "sciency" documents, here is my morning menu, redacted into a timeline format for accuracy:
9:02 Sit down at desk and begin work
9:04 Decide I am hungry, begin to plan appropriately.
9:05 Eat entire sandwich. Decide it was "mush smaller than expected."
9:08 Eat entire bag of cheese curls. Yummy. Decide cheese curls are "like crack cocaine."
9:15 Eat Nectarine. Decide that nectarines are good, "but they are not cheese curls."
9:18 Consider what I am now going to do for lunch, resume focus on work, ignore pathetic wimpering coming from my mid-stomach. Noise sounds like, "more, please."
11:45 Drink some soup.
12:15 Drink some stanky drip coffee filled with coffee mate.
12:55 - 1:02 Eat Salad, yummy!
1:03 Lick excess dressing out of tupperware container.
1:05 Curse the WW (weight watcher) gods, covet donuts and cookies sitting only two doors away.
1:06 Email extremely cute girlfriend, fully apraise her of situation, resume prayer to the WW gods.
1:12 Finish email timeline, discover almond has fallen to the ground. Consider my place in the universe. Eat Almond. Pray for more scraps on the floor.
1:14 Send email.
Dear Superfox,
Since you like "sciency" documents, here is my morning menu, redacted into a timeline format for accuracy:
9:02 Sit down at desk and begin work
9:04 Decide I am hungry, begin to plan appropriately.
9:05 Eat entire sandwich. Decide it was "mush smaller than expected."
9:08 Eat entire bag of cheese curls. Yummy. Decide cheese curls are "like crack cocaine."
9:15 Eat Nectarine. Decide that nectarines are good, "but they are not cheese curls."
9:18 Consider what I am now going to do for lunch, resume focus on work, ignore pathetic wimpering coming from my mid-stomach. Noise sounds like, "more, please."
11:45 Drink some soup.
12:15 Drink some stanky drip coffee filled with coffee mate.
12:55 - 1:02 Eat Salad, yummy!
1:03 Lick excess dressing out of tupperware container.
1:05 Curse the WW (weight watcher) gods, covet donuts and cookies sitting only two doors away.
1:06 Email extremely cute girlfriend, fully apraise her of situation, resume prayer to the WW gods.
1:12 Finish email timeline, discover almond has fallen to the ground. Consider my place in the universe. Eat Almond. Pray for more scraps on the floor.
1:14 Send email.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
March Madness Finale
Hello college basketball fans,
Its time to lay to rest this year's Gratz Family Spectacular. First, to begin, may we have a moment of silence for the vanquished green and white. They were a great team, who didn't have their best night, unfortunately. Despite the rough end to the tournament, it was a great run for MSU this year. But, as the facilitator of the Gratz Family Challenge, I must "play through the pain" and move on to our business of the day. The results:
North Carolina's victory shook up the family brackets to the point where our previous leader, Turney, who had the lead through most of the tournament, had to settle for fourth place - being beaten by not one, but all THREE of his daughter's significant others. Ohhh, the pain of defeat. The final standings:
1. Will - FIRST PRIZE, the gold medal. You win immense glory, pride, and a mystery gift. (Your mystery gift will arrive in the mail soon)
2. Danny - SECOND PRIZE, the silver medal. All you get is pride, bummer for you.
3. Tyler - THIRD PRIZE, the bronze medal. I won a slice of key lime pie, eaten last night, sprinkled with Turney's tears.
4. Turney - So close, so close. You don't win squat - but you do get some respect for a daring bracket that almost paid off big.
5. Jeannie - You won a snow day yesterday, that's pretty sweet!
6. Lauren - Lost in the head to head dual with Danny, for Chicago pride. Very sad.
7. Rebecca - After leading early, her bracket just fell apart. Also very sad.
8. Bacon Log - Picked all the favorites - no glory there. Remains a tasty (if gluttonous) tournament entry.
9. Lynne - Sadly got whooped by a pork product, need I say more?
For Will, the taste of victory is bittersweet. Sure, Will now gets to brag about being the "college basketball expert" of the family, but his wisdom comes at the expense of his beloved basketball team. Given the choice, we're all pretty sure Will would have exchanged his Gratz Family Spectacular victory for a Spartan win. Perhaps he would have preferred to exchange those final game tickets as well?
So, that's it folks. Thanks for participating! Will's prize is coming to his house via mail. Its a glorious prize. We will expect him to wear it on our next visit out West.
As for the rest of the bracket, one can't help but notice a pattern. It seems like all of the men beat all of the women in the contest... hmmmmm? What happened, ladies?
Sincerely,
Tyler
The 2009 Gratz Family Spectacular Facilitator
Its time to lay to rest this year's Gratz Family Spectacular. First, to begin, may we have a moment of silence for the vanquished green and white. They were a great team, who didn't have their best night, unfortunately. Despite the rough end to the tournament, it was a great run for MSU this year. But, as the facilitator of the Gratz Family Challenge, I must "play through the pain" and move on to our business of the day. The results:
North Carolina's victory shook up the family brackets to the point where our previous leader, Turney, who had the lead through most of the tournament, had to settle for fourth place - being beaten by not one, but all THREE of his daughter's significant others. Ohhh, the pain of defeat. The final standings:
1. Will - FIRST PRIZE, the gold medal. You win immense glory, pride, and a mystery gift. (Your mystery gift will arrive in the mail soon)
2. Danny - SECOND PRIZE, the silver medal. All you get is pride, bummer for you.
3. Tyler - THIRD PRIZE, the bronze medal. I won a slice of key lime pie, eaten last night, sprinkled with Turney's tears.
4. Turney - So close, so close. You don't win squat - but you do get some respect for a daring bracket that almost paid off big.
5. Jeannie - You won a snow day yesterday, that's pretty sweet!
6. Lauren - Lost in the head to head dual with Danny, for Chicago pride. Very sad.
7. Rebecca - After leading early, her bracket just fell apart. Also very sad.
8. Bacon Log - Picked all the favorites - no glory there. Remains a tasty (if gluttonous) tournament entry.
9. Lynne - Sadly got whooped by a pork product, need I say more?
For Will, the taste of victory is bittersweet. Sure, Will now gets to brag about being the "college basketball expert" of the family, but his wisdom comes at the expense of his beloved basketball team. Given the choice, we're all pretty sure Will would have exchanged his Gratz Family Spectacular victory for a Spartan win. Perhaps he would have preferred to exchange those final game tickets as well?
So, that's it folks. Thanks for participating! Will's prize is coming to his house via mail. Its a glorious prize. We will expect him to wear it on our next visit out West.
As for the rest of the bracket, one can't help but notice a pattern. It seems like all of the men beat all of the women in the contest... hmmmmm? What happened, ladies?
Sincerely,
Tyler
The 2009 Gratz Family Spectacular Facilitator
Thursday, March 19, 2009
March Madness
Hello college basketball fans!
Welcome to the 2009 Gratz Family Spectacular! For the next three weeks you will be experiencing the glory, the tears, the sweat, and the heartbreak that accompanies the 2009 NCAA College Basketball Tournament. To begin your journey, you must prepare yourself for the roller-coaster ride that occurs each March. This month all of you will experience the typical (and inevitable signs) that you are participating in the Gratz Family Spectacular (hearby referred to as GFS). These include (but are not limited to):
1. A series of coordinated screams and shouts, emanating simultaneously from Lansing, MI and San Ramon, CA.
2. A normally polite kindergarten teacher screaming "Turney!" when a certain spouse drops the "F bomb" in front of both guests and kids.
3. The jumping up and down around a living room, resulting in A) one spilled beverage B) a pulled muscle or tweaked knee, or C) the scaring of a small child or pet.
4. A discernible increase in the amount (and desperate nature) of basketball-related daily prayer.
5. Some hysterical crying by an "unnamed" Washington fan in Ann Arbor, MI.
6. Several end-of-weekend updates, written by the administrator of the Gratz Family Spectacular (with our own group results).
Without further adieu, the players in this years GFS and their brackets:
Lynne "Superfox" Gratz, playing the "BL's Bracket." --- Hoping to follow up a strong debut in the 2008 Tournament, baby Lynne is relying on a combination of savy expertise, roll-the-dice logic, and brazen but proven luck. Will she be able to follow up her savvy rookie performance of last year, or will 2009 be the year of the sophomore curse for this brown-haired beauty?
Turney "TG" Gratz, playing the "TG" Bracket. --- The dean of the GFS, this year the papa bear has some stiff competition from dudes and daughters alike. The million dollar question hinges on if Turney will be blinded by the "green curtain" - that indefatigable and persistent urge to pick Michigan State to advance, advance, and advance. Tune in on Thursday at noon to see if Turney beat the green curtain, or if St. Patrick's day will again cast a green hue on Lansing that will last the rest of March.
Jeanne "Jeanne G" Gratz, playing the "Jeanne" bracket. --- Queen of all Michigan State fans, this year Jeanne hopes to draw on a secret source of predictive power that only the genius possess and the insane lament. Jeanne likes to play it cool, but experts know that a basketball god visited Jeanne last year (taking the form of Drew Neitzel) who told her the winner of the next ten tournaments. Only time will tell if Jeanne will choose to use her secrets this year, or if she will save it for another run.
Rebecca "pringle_rebecca" Pringle, playing the "go green!" bracket --- Known is some parts as the 'master of multitasking' this MSU grad pretends to be only limitedly interested in watching 19 year old kids throw a ball around for 40 minutes. But the smartest observers know that while it may seem like she is simultaneously tending to 1-3 excited offspring, teleconferencing a work meeting, and baking chicken nuggets, she actually is keenly following the college basketball emanating from the other room. Don't forget your march maxim: Best Brackets bet on Beck!
Lauren "leitaolauren" Leitao, playing the "L-Train" bracket. --- Listen up, all you chicagoans riding public transportation! Don't underestimate just how far the L train will go! L train is gonna run her bracket fast and hard, and she's gonna go so far you better not miss the stop! She's bringing some wicked moves, straight from Morseland all the way up and down your sh*t, so you kids better bring your A game or just step off before the L train puts the smack down on your brackets. Yeaauuuhhhh.
Danny "dannyleitao" Leitao, playing the "D Money" bracket. --- The second of our Chicago based participants, D money plans to take the L train to school!!! While it may be tempting to focus on the "chicago v. chicago" match between D money and the L train, don't sleep on his chances to win it all. Opponents know that to beat D money you need to distract him with meat. Ribs, Chicken, Lamb, Pork, Braziliian "all you can eat barbeque" served on swords...you better bring out all the stops to get D money to the point where he is no longer paying attention to his brackets, and is only "eating for pain."
Conrad William "cdub" Pringle, playing the "Get your Suton for the Dance" bracket. --- This year cdub has to be considered the odds-on favorite and savvy veteran. While upstarts might be tempted to pick a newcomer, smart money has cdub dancing all the way. But, as was true for the papa bear, Cdub has to overcome the blinding brightness of the green curtain. This year we ask, will Cdub benefit from being one of the truest fans, the most dedicated disciples of the Church of Izzo, and get rewarded for his faith? Nobody in Ann Arbor is sure which way Cdub will play it...will he pick MSU to go all the way, or will his basketball IQ overcome his MSU heart? Its a true toss up.
Bacon "my_bacon_log" Explosion, playing "Bacon's Picks" bracket. --- This year the Bacon Explosion gained fame at the Superbowl, where this giant meat torpedo delighted audiences with his 7000+ calories and 500+ grams of fat. This March the Bacon Explosion has returned - not in actual form - but as a way for the rest of the field to see how the "favorites" are doing. Bacon Explosion picked the favored seed in every match-up, representing the picks of the tournament committee who placed the field. Bacon is a good benchmark for everyone. Did you beat the Bacon? Or did Bacon beat you? Did you eat the Bacon? Will the Bacon get eaten by the D money meat master? Only time will tell.
And finally, your administrator, Tyler "tacornelius" Cornelius, playing the "Pac 10 Represents (Tyler's picks)" bracket. --- A tried and true Washington fan, Tyler suffers from an acute case of home team optimism. While others suffer from green curtains, Tyler's curtains are purple (and so is the rest of his furniture). Incapable of looking at a Pac 10 game objectively, Tyler has picked all of the Pac 10 teams to advance in the first round, and three to make the sweet 16. Would anyone in their right mind pick this outcome, especially this year? Probably not, but nonetheless, he can't help it. So it goes.
So there you have it....
Will MSU run long and deep into March?
Will the L train take all of D Money's mojo?
Will the superfox wipe the floor with the competition (like last year)?
Will Washington fans around the world rejoice?
We'll see...very soon!
Sincerely,
Your Administrator
Welcome to the 2009 Gratz Family Spectacular! For the next three weeks you will be experiencing the glory, the tears, the sweat, and the heartbreak that accompanies the 2009 NCAA College Basketball Tournament. To begin your journey, you must prepare yourself for the roller-coaster ride that occurs each March. This month all of you will experience the typical (and inevitable signs) that you are participating in the Gratz Family Spectacular (hearby referred to as GFS). These include (but are not limited to):
1. A series of coordinated screams and shouts, emanating simultaneously from Lansing, MI and San Ramon, CA.
2. A normally polite kindergarten teacher screaming "Turney!" when a certain spouse drops the "F bomb" in front of both guests and kids.
3. The jumping up and down around a living room, resulting in A) one spilled beverage B) a pulled muscle or tweaked knee, or C) the scaring of a small child or pet.
4. A discernible increase in the amount (and desperate nature) of basketball-related daily prayer.
5. Some hysterical crying by an "unnamed" Washington fan in Ann Arbor, MI.
6. Several end-of-weekend updates, written by the administrator of the Gratz Family Spectacular (with our own group results).
Without further adieu, the players in this years GFS and their brackets:
Lynne "Superfox" Gratz, playing the "BL's Bracket." --- Hoping to follow up a strong debut in the 2008 Tournament, baby Lynne is relying on a combination of savy expertise, roll-the-dice logic, and brazen but proven luck. Will she be able to follow up her savvy rookie performance of last year, or will 2009 be the year of the sophomore curse for this brown-haired beauty?
Turney "TG" Gratz, playing the "TG" Bracket. --- The dean of the GFS, this year the papa bear has some stiff competition from dudes and daughters alike. The million dollar question hinges on if Turney will be blinded by the "green curtain" - that indefatigable and persistent urge to pick Michigan State to advance, advance, and advance. Tune in on Thursday at noon to see if Turney beat the green curtain, or if St. Patrick's day will again cast a green hue on Lansing that will last the rest of March.
Jeanne "Jeanne G" Gratz, playing the "Jeanne" bracket. --- Queen of all Michigan State fans, this year Jeanne hopes to draw on a secret source of predictive power that only the genius possess and the insane lament. Jeanne likes to play it cool, but experts know that a basketball god visited Jeanne last year (taking the form of Drew Neitzel) who told her the winner of the next ten tournaments. Only time will tell if Jeanne will choose to use her secrets this year, or if she will save it for another run.
Rebecca "pringle_rebecca" Pringle, playing the "go green!" bracket --- Known is some parts as the 'master of multitasking' this MSU grad pretends to be only limitedly interested in watching 19 year old kids throw a ball around for 40 minutes. But the smartest observers know that while it may seem like she is simultaneously tending to 1-3 excited offspring, teleconferencing a work meeting, and baking chicken nuggets, she actually is keenly following the college basketball emanating from the other room. Don't forget your march maxim: Best Brackets bet on Beck!
Lauren "leitaolauren" Leitao, playing the "L-Train" bracket. --- Listen up, all you chicagoans riding public transportation! Don't underestimate just how far the L train will go! L train is gonna run her bracket fast and hard, and she's gonna go so far you better not miss the stop! She's bringing some wicked moves, straight from Morseland all the way up and down your sh*t, so you kids better bring your A game or just step off before the L train puts the smack down on your brackets. Yeaauuuhhhh.
Danny "dannyleitao" Leitao, playing the "D Money" bracket. --- The second of our Chicago based participants, D money plans to take the L train to school!!! While it may be tempting to focus on the "chicago v. chicago" match between D money and the L train, don't sleep on his chances to win it all. Opponents know that to beat D money you need to distract him with meat. Ribs, Chicken, Lamb, Pork, Braziliian "all you can eat barbeque" served on swords...you better bring out all the stops to get D money to the point where he is no longer paying attention to his brackets, and is only "eating for pain."
Conrad William "cdub" Pringle, playing the "Get your Suton for the Dance" bracket. --- This year cdub has to be considered the odds-on favorite and savvy veteran. While upstarts might be tempted to pick a newcomer, smart money has cdub dancing all the way. But, as was true for the papa bear, Cdub has to overcome the blinding brightness of the green curtain. This year we ask, will Cdub benefit from being one of the truest fans, the most dedicated disciples of the Church of Izzo, and get rewarded for his faith? Nobody in Ann Arbor is sure which way Cdub will play it...will he pick MSU to go all the way, or will his basketball IQ overcome his MSU heart? Its a true toss up.
Bacon "my_bacon_log" Explosion, playing "Bacon's Picks" bracket. --- This year the Bacon Explosion gained fame at the Superbowl, where this giant meat torpedo delighted audiences with his 7000+ calories and 500+ grams of fat. This March the Bacon Explosion has returned - not in actual form - but as a way for the rest of the field to see how the "favorites" are doing. Bacon Explosion picked the favored seed in every match-up, representing the picks of the tournament committee who placed the field. Bacon is a good benchmark for everyone. Did you beat the Bacon? Or did Bacon beat you? Did you eat the Bacon? Will the Bacon get eaten by the D money meat master? Only time will tell.
And finally, your administrator, Tyler "tacornelius" Cornelius, playing the "Pac 10 Represents (Tyler's picks)" bracket. --- A tried and true Washington fan, Tyler suffers from an acute case of home team optimism. While others suffer from green curtains, Tyler's curtains are purple (and so is the rest of his furniture). Incapable of looking at a Pac 10 game objectively, Tyler has picked all of the Pac 10 teams to advance in the first round, and three to make the sweet 16. Would anyone in their right mind pick this outcome, especially this year? Probably not, but nonetheless, he can't help it. So it goes.
So there you have it....
Will MSU run long and deep into March?
Will the L train take all of D Money's mojo?
Will the superfox wipe the floor with the competition (like last year)?
Will Washington fans around the world rejoice?
We'll see...very soon!
Sincerely,
Your Administrator
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
A Few Numbers Worth A Thousand Words
I saw this passage quoted in Dan Froomkin's White House Blog this morning:
Mark Knoller of CBS News tallies Bush's final numbers:
"U.S. Military Deaths In Iraq: 4,228.
"U.S. Military Deaths In Afghanistan: 634.
"Number Of Visits To Camp David: 149, totaling all or part of 487 days.
"Number Of Visits To His Texas Ranch: 77, totaling all or part of 490 days.
"Number Of Visits To His Parents' Home In Kennebunkport, Maine: 11, totaling all or part of 43 days."
And yes, that totals 1,020 days -- or just over 34 percent of his 2,992-day presidency. Ronald Reagan, the previously most-vacationing president ever, clocked a mere 866 days during his two terms.
Mark Knoller of CBS News tallies Bush's final numbers:
"U.S. Military Deaths In Iraq: 4,228.
"U.S. Military Deaths In Afghanistan: 634.
"Number Of Visits To Camp David: 149, totaling all or part of 487 days.
"Number Of Visits To His Texas Ranch: 77, totaling all or part of 490 days.
"Number Of Visits To His Parents' Home In Kennebunkport, Maine: 11, totaling all or part of 43 days."
And yes, that totals 1,020 days -- or just over 34 percent of his 2,992-day presidency. Ronald Reagan, the previously most-vacationing president ever, clocked a mere 866 days during his two terms.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Inauguration Day
Sorry for the long silence. There has been lots to do. Today there was a ton of media coverage of the Obamas, but I found the following article to be the best I read.
The article, titled "Restless Searcher On an Improbable Path" by Steve Maraniss, was also recommended by The Fix.
The article, titled "Restless Searcher On an Improbable Path" by Steve Maraniss, was also recommended by The Fix.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Boycott Whole Foods
My pal Emily just informed me of yet another example of how big grocery store chains are trying to put smaller, local producers out of business. This time its Whole Foods, also known as "Whole Paycheck," who is actively working to undermine local and regional food systems.
I enjoy shopping for many of the products that Whole Foods sells, but they are not my only option, and so I plan to move all of my patronage somewhere else. In Ann Arbor that is usually Buschs (where we do most of our shopping now), but it could also be Plum Market, the Peoples Food Coop, Sparrow Market, or the Produce Station - all locally owned businesses.
Emily's Link: http://newseasonsmarket.blogspot.com/
Below is my letter to whole foods, submitted on their Customer Service website.
To Whom It May Concern:
I recently learned of your attempts to get information about the New Seasons Market in Portland, OR. While I no longer live in Portland, I admire New Season's attempts at creating a regional food system, and I support local producers whenever possible. Your company has improved on some of its policies, most notably when embarrassed by bad publicity or legal problems, yet you seem intent on harming local communities with your aggressive business tactics, particularly in acquiring smaller companies like Wild Oats. Your actions threaten to undermine regional production and distribution systems by discouraging competition.
In virtue of your aggressive attempts to get information about New Seasons, I feel I am forced to reconsider my patronage of your stores. Moreover, I wonder how you might justify such unfair attacks against such a "small fish in a large pond." Was it not so long ago that your company was that size?
We live in a world where "moral" considerations are poorly valued in the marketplace. So I intend to voice my displeasure where I can, with my shopping dollars. Whole Foods is now becoming synonymous with unfair business practices, and embarrassing behavior by its leadership.
I plan to spread the word among my family and friends that Whole Foods is no longer a company with a conscience, no longer a company that I can trust.
Tyler Cornelius
Ann Arbor, MI
I enjoy shopping for many of the products that Whole Foods sells, but they are not my only option, and so I plan to move all of my patronage somewhere else. In Ann Arbor that is usually Buschs (where we do most of our shopping now), but it could also be Plum Market, the Peoples Food Coop, Sparrow Market, or the Produce Station - all locally owned businesses.
Emily's Link: http://newseasonsmarket.blogspot.com/
Below is my letter to whole foods, submitted on their Customer Service website.
To Whom It May Concern:
I recently learned of your attempts to get information about the New Seasons Market in Portland, OR. While I no longer live in Portland, I admire New Season's attempts at creating a regional food system, and I support local producers whenever possible. Your company has improved on some of its policies, most notably when embarrassed by bad publicity or legal problems, yet you seem intent on harming local communities with your aggressive business tactics, particularly in acquiring smaller companies like Wild Oats. Your actions threaten to undermine regional production and distribution systems by discouraging competition.
In virtue of your aggressive attempts to get information about New Seasons, I feel I am forced to reconsider my patronage of your stores. Moreover, I wonder how you might justify such unfair attacks against such a "small fish in a large pond." Was it not so long ago that your company was that size?
We live in a world where "moral" considerations are poorly valued in the marketplace. So I intend to voice my displeasure where I can, with my shopping dollars. Whole Foods is now becoming synonymous with unfair business practices, and embarrassing behavior by its leadership.
I plan to spread the word among my family and friends that Whole Foods is no longer a company with a conscience, no longer a company that I can trust.
Tyler Cornelius
Ann Arbor, MI
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Why I'm In A Good Mood
I am in a good mood because I am finally able to see a headline like this:
Obama Vows to Cut Budget Waste
Cutting government waste is not a signature, liberal, "Democratic Party" issue, some might say. But I beg to differ. So much of what past Democrats and Republicans have done is redistribute money upwards - to companies, to stock holders, to the middle class, to those who already have enough to be comfortable. "Help the middle class, shit on the poorest" could have been the mantra of both parties. My hope is that Obama does a whole lot less of this. The example of government waste that the author above cited in the article brings joy to my heart! Obama plans to cut wasteful subsidies to big agribusiness producers. The same people who bring to market loads of cheap, unhealthy corn syrup that is practically madel of petroleum. I couldn't have picked a better example myself, what a good place to start! Why haven't Democrats done this before? Because they have been in the pocket of the agribusiness lobby. And the following headline gives me hope that change really has come to America, even if it is starting out kind of slow.
Obama to Limit Inaugural Donations
Seriously, isn't this great? A president for all the people. Pinch me before I wake up.
Friday, November 7, 2008
Testimonial
From a good friend:
last election day, it rained.
it was my third time voting in a major election. the first time, in 2000, i had planned not to vote at all. when i shared my designs with my roommate, deirdra, she nearly lost it. she was active in the college democrats. she understood voting to be a privilege that she couldn’t wait each time to exercise. i’ll never forget the incredulous look on her face.
so i registered, and i went. a guy in a hooded sweatshirt outside my polling place at david rittenhouse laboratories handed me a ralph nader pamphlet on my way in. “vote your conscience,” he said to me gravely. he might have even patted me earnestly on the shoulder, the way i remember the feeling. he couldn’t have known that i had almost no voter conscience at all. but still, i didn’t forget what he had said. when i got to the voting booth, i seriously considered voting for ralph nader before, with a pounding heart, i marked “al gore/joseph lieberman” instead. i didn’t vote for a single other thing on that ballot. i left all the rest of it blank, front and back. i had grown up in michigan, but i was voting for my first time ever at college in philadelphia. i didn’t know most of what was going on.
i can’t remember now my experience the next day. i just know what other americans know: counts and recounts, gore winning the popular vote, something rotten in the state of florida. i can’t imagine that in the short period of time between when deirdra convinced me to register and when george w. bush gave his first acceptance speech, i had come to care much at all.
four years later i was in graduate school, and, by then, a full term under president bush and a year in the graduate employees’ organization—the graduate teachers’ union at the university of michigan—had changed me. through geo, i was active in the effort to defeat proposal 2, an amendment to the michigan constitution that would prevent same-sex couples anywhere in the state from ever exercising their right to legal marriage. this time, when i went to fill out my ballot, my heart pounded again. this time, i know i bubbled in at least two spots: one on the front, and one on the back. and when i left my polling place, surrounded by the euphoria of having voted again—after spending weeks involved in an organizing campaign in a liberal town—i couldn’t imagine that what i had bubbled in with my black marker would do anything but make itself manifest, immediately and definitively, in the world around me.
somehow, on the night of november 2, 2004, i ended up on my parents’ couch in plymouth, michigan, watching the election returns alone. i remember sitting up all night with carmen harlan and devin scillian on local 4, until i couldn’t sit up anymore. then i remember lying down, eventually closing my eyes, falling asleep with the tv still on, nervous that, after four years of a bush administration, the results were not more obviously in favor of john kerry. i woke up the next morning to the news that kerry had conceded, and there, alone on my parents’ couch, i cried.
in two years, another proposal 2 threatened again the equity and access of the people of the state of michigan. determined to play some part in protecting affirmative action, i signed up to hand out anti-prop-2 literature outside forsythe middle school early on election day morning. i got there a few minutes late, so i decided to make it up by staying for a second block of time. just as the shifts were changing, it started to rain. i didn’t have an umbrella or raincoat, but it didn’t matter to me. for the first time since deirdra had submitted my voter registration in that first year of the new millenium, i was actively engaged in the process of voting, and well before i fed my own ballot into the machine.
when the crowds thinned out at forsythe, they moved me to bach elementary school. it was raining harder when i got to bach, and a lot of voters walking into the school gave me sympathetic looks as they walked past. a few of them even thanked me, which just about made my day, until there, on the corner of fourth and jefferson, a miracle happened. a man in a green car drove up next to me. he was wearing a gray business suit. i recognized him from when he had passed me before without speaking, on his way into the polling place. the man rolled down his window and handed me a small black umbrella. i didn’t know him, and earlier he had not said a word, so when i looked at him confused, he said simply, “i knew i had an extra one in my car. you looked like you could use it.” i smiled and thanked him, and as he drove away, i stood there on the corner of fourth and jefferson, underneath a small, black umbrella in the rain, and cried.
by yesterday, what was evident was that when i voted in the united states of america, the opposite always came to pass. two terms of a bush presidency, two intolerant proposal 2s, and all i knew to do in the weeks leading up to this election was to expect nothing. this year, the one thing i was sure of was that i refused to be alone. so after marking my ballot completely, front and back, i went to the geo office—the birthplace of my radicalism—and watched, with a few dozen other people, as my magic ballot marker worked, before my very eyes, for the first time ever.
my initial tears, it occurs to me now, were from a release of months of nervous energy. i realized then that i had not let myself believe anything: that barack obama would be elected president of the united states of america, or that he wouldn’t. i realized that i had been storing inside my body both hope and dismay. that for the last four years—from the moment i cried one morning on my parents’ couch, to the moment i was crying now—i had refused to think much about the presidency at all.
my second tears were because something i had bubbled in with a real, magic marker had, for once, come to pass. my third tears were for deirdra, because she had talked me into registering to exercise this privilege all those years ago. my fourth tears were because no person of color had ever before been elected president of the united states of america. my fifth tears were because barack obama just had, and his own grandmother had passed away just in time not to see it. my sixth tears were because alyssa touched me on the shoulder, and when i managed to put my head up to look at her, tears were streaming down her face, too. my seventh tears were because i glanced up from alyssa and saw jesse jackson crying on msnbc. my eighth tears were because this time, i was not alone. because every time i was about to stop crying, i looked around—in this birthplace of my radicalism—and there was megan, and tyler, and urmila, and charles, and paul, and kiara, and colleen, and they were crying, too. because for the first time in a long time—and i guess, for me, the first time ever—the person we had voted for had won. and that made us feel like we had won, too.
pulling away from a long, teary hug with me, tyler had shaken his head. “it’s been a long eight years,” he said, with a look on his face that told me his body, for all that time, had been storing both hope and dismay.
“no,” i responded, matching his expression, because i knew exactly what it meant. “it’s been a lot longer than that.”
last election day, it rained.
it was my third time voting in a major election. the first time, in 2000, i had planned not to vote at all. when i shared my designs with my roommate, deirdra, she nearly lost it. she was active in the college democrats. she understood voting to be a privilege that she couldn’t wait each time to exercise. i’ll never forget the incredulous look on her face.
so i registered, and i went. a guy in a hooded sweatshirt outside my polling place at david rittenhouse laboratories handed me a ralph nader pamphlet on my way in. “vote your conscience,” he said to me gravely. he might have even patted me earnestly on the shoulder, the way i remember the feeling. he couldn’t have known that i had almost no voter conscience at all. but still, i didn’t forget what he had said. when i got to the voting booth, i seriously considered voting for ralph nader before, with a pounding heart, i marked “al gore/joseph lieberman” instead. i didn’t vote for a single other thing on that ballot. i left all the rest of it blank, front and back. i had grown up in michigan, but i was voting for my first time ever at college in philadelphia. i didn’t know most of what was going on.
i can’t remember now my experience the next day. i just know what other americans know: counts and recounts, gore winning the popular vote, something rotten in the state of florida. i can’t imagine that in the short period of time between when deirdra convinced me to register and when george w. bush gave his first acceptance speech, i had come to care much at all.
four years later i was in graduate school, and, by then, a full term under president bush and a year in the graduate employees’ organization—the graduate teachers’ union at the university of michigan—had changed me. through geo, i was active in the effort to defeat proposal 2, an amendment to the michigan constitution that would prevent same-sex couples anywhere in the state from ever exercising their right to legal marriage. this time, when i went to fill out my ballot, my heart pounded again. this time, i know i bubbled in at least two spots: one on the front, and one on the back. and when i left my polling place, surrounded by the euphoria of having voted again—after spending weeks involved in an organizing campaign in a liberal town—i couldn’t imagine that what i had bubbled in with my black marker would do anything but make itself manifest, immediately and definitively, in the world around me.
somehow, on the night of november 2, 2004, i ended up on my parents’ couch in plymouth, michigan, watching the election returns alone. i remember sitting up all night with carmen harlan and devin scillian on local 4, until i couldn’t sit up anymore. then i remember lying down, eventually closing my eyes, falling asleep with the tv still on, nervous that, after four years of a bush administration, the results were not more obviously in favor of john kerry. i woke up the next morning to the news that kerry had conceded, and there, alone on my parents’ couch, i cried.
in two years, another proposal 2 threatened again the equity and access of the people of the state of michigan. determined to play some part in protecting affirmative action, i signed up to hand out anti-prop-2 literature outside forsythe middle school early on election day morning. i got there a few minutes late, so i decided to make it up by staying for a second block of time. just as the shifts were changing, it started to rain. i didn’t have an umbrella or raincoat, but it didn’t matter to me. for the first time since deirdra had submitted my voter registration in that first year of the new millenium, i was actively engaged in the process of voting, and well before i fed my own ballot into the machine.
when the crowds thinned out at forsythe, they moved me to bach elementary school. it was raining harder when i got to bach, and a lot of voters walking into the school gave me sympathetic looks as they walked past. a few of them even thanked me, which just about made my day, until there, on the corner of fourth and jefferson, a miracle happened. a man in a green car drove up next to me. he was wearing a gray business suit. i recognized him from when he had passed me before without speaking, on his way into the polling place. the man rolled down his window and handed me a small black umbrella. i didn’t know him, and earlier he had not said a word, so when i looked at him confused, he said simply, “i knew i had an extra one in my car. you looked like you could use it.” i smiled and thanked him, and as he drove away, i stood there on the corner of fourth and jefferson, underneath a small, black umbrella in the rain, and cried.
by yesterday, what was evident was that when i voted in the united states of america, the opposite always came to pass. two terms of a bush presidency, two intolerant proposal 2s, and all i knew to do in the weeks leading up to this election was to expect nothing. this year, the one thing i was sure of was that i refused to be alone. so after marking my ballot completely, front and back, i went to the geo office—the birthplace of my radicalism—and watched, with a few dozen other people, as my magic ballot marker worked, before my very eyes, for the first time ever.
my initial tears, it occurs to me now, were from a release of months of nervous energy. i realized then that i had not let myself believe anything: that barack obama would be elected president of the united states of america, or that he wouldn’t. i realized that i had been storing inside my body both hope and dismay. that for the last four years—from the moment i cried one morning on my parents’ couch, to the moment i was crying now—i had refused to think much about the presidency at all.
my second tears were because something i had bubbled in with a real, magic marker had, for once, come to pass. my third tears were for deirdra, because she had talked me into registering to exercise this privilege all those years ago. my fourth tears were because no person of color had ever before been elected president of the united states of america. my fifth tears were because barack obama just had, and his own grandmother had passed away just in time not to see it. my sixth tears were because alyssa touched me on the shoulder, and when i managed to put my head up to look at her, tears were streaming down her face, too. my seventh tears were because i glanced up from alyssa and saw jesse jackson crying on msnbc. my eighth tears were because this time, i was not alone. because every time i was about to stop crying, i looked around—in this birthplace of my radicalism—and there was megan, and tyler, and urmila, and charles, and paul, and kiara, and colleen, and they were crying, too. because for the first time in a long time—and i guess, for me, the first time ever—the person we had voted for had won. and that made us feel like we had won, too.
pulling away from a long, teary hug with me, tyler had shaken his head. “it’s been a long eight years,” he said, with a look on his face that told me his body, for all that time, had been storing both hope and dismay.
“no,” i responded, matching his expression, because i knew exactly what it meant. “it’s been a lot longer than that.”
Thursday, November 6, 2008
My Predictions Hit the Mark (mostly)
A week out I predicted the outcome of several swing states. Below is a chart that summarizes how I did. Check it.
Tyler's Prediction / Actual / Difference
FL - Obama by 2% / 2.2% / +.2%
OH - Obama by 4% / 3.9% / -.1%
PA - Obama by 6% / 10.3% / +4.3%
IN - McCain by 1% / Obama 0.9% / +1.9%
MO - Obama by 1% / McCain .2% / -1.2%
NH - Obama by 4% / 10.5% / +6.5%
NV - Obama by 3% / 12.4% / +9.4%
CO - Obama by 5% / 7.7% / +2.7%
MT - McCain by 4% / 2.5% / -1.5%
ND - McCain by 6% / 8.6% / +2.6%
VA - Obama by 4% / 4.5% / +.5%
NC - Obama by 1% / .4% / -.6%
IA - Obama by 4% / 9.3% / +5.3%
WV - McCain by 6% / 13.1% / +7.1%
GA - McCain by 4% / 5.5% / +1.5%
TOTAL 364 / 364 / Right On!!!
So, to summarize, it looks like the majority of the pollsters did a good job of measuring the number of likely voters, because I based much of my prediction on those numbers and I got pretty close. Interestingly, I thought this election was going to be closer than it was (not by electoral votes, but by the margin of victory in individual states). Nevada and Pennsylvania and West Virginia were not nearly as close as I thought they would be. But I nailed Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia - picking both the winner and the winning percentage.
And, to continue bragging, if Missouri holds, I correctly predicted Obama's 364 electoral vote total. But I did miss on Indiana and Missouri, but only barely.
The Lesson from this election - those pollsters know what they are doing, especially when you look at all the numbers together. Thanks to Nate Silver, who must be basking in the limelight of his success right now.
Tyler's Prediction / Actual / Difference
FL - Obama by 2% / 2.2% / +.2%
OH - Obama by 4% / 3.9% / -.1%
PA - Obama by 6% / 10.3% / +4.3%
IN - McCain by 1% / Obama 0.9% / +1.9%
MO - Obama by 1% / McCain .2% / -1.2%
NH - Obama by 4% / 10.5% / +6.5%
NV - Obama by 3% / 12.4% / +9.4%
CO - Obama by 5% / 7.7% / +2.7%
MT - McCain by 4% / 2.5% / -1.5%
ND - McCain by 6% / 8.6% / +2.6%
VA - Obama by 4% / 4.5% / +.5%
NC - Obama by 1% / .4% / -.6%
IA - Obama by 4% / 9.3% / +5.3%
WV - McCain by 6% / 13.1% / +7.1%
GA - McCain by 4% / 5.5% / +1.5%
TOTAL 364 / 364 / Right On!!!
So, to summarize, it looks like the majority of the pollsters did a good job of measuring the number of likely voters, because I based much of my prediction on those numbers and I got pretty close. Interestingly, I thought this election was going to be closer than it was (not by electoral votes, but by the margin of victory in individual states). Nevada and Pennsylvania and West Virginia were not nearly as close as I thought they would be. But I nailed Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia - picking both the winner and the winning percentage.
And, to continue bragging, if Missouri holds, I correctly predicted Obama's 364 electoral vote total. But I did miss on Indiana and Missouri, but only barely.
The Lesson from this election - those pollsters know what they are doing, especially when you look at all the numbers together. Thanks to Nate Silver, who must be basking in the limelight of his success right now.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
NOTES on the ELECTION
Key Indicators (Organized by Hour (EST))
Some of this info is from memory, much of it is gleaned from sources around the web, sometime with citations, sometimes without.
5:00 PM
Media Elite Insiders Get First Look at Exit Polls - In 2004 the purveyors of exit polls didn't do a very good job of preventing leaks to the media. As a result, Democrats became ecstatic over early indications that Kerry was doing better than expected. It turned out the these exit polls had difficulty getting conservatives to participate (or tell the truth) to pollsters who were disproportionally young and female. In 2006 the exit pollers put these people in a locked room, took away their blackberrys and cell phones, and VIOLA! No leaks. Today they get their first briefing at 5 pm, where networks and journalists can begin the process of scouring over the information and deciding how much credibility exit polls merit. By all indications one should be very very skeptical of this data. Watch the drudgereport.com for early leaks.
6:00 PM
INDIANA closes in some areas and networks will start the prediction game. Eastern Indiana should favor McCain and results there come in early. Watch to see when returns from Gary and the Western Suburbs come in - as they have high numbers of working class democrats and a higher african-american population. Also, Kerry won Marion county (Indianapolis) and Obama would have to do the same. Small rural counties in Indiana usually go 3 to 1 for republican candidates. This could also be the first indication of turnout numbers and if this years polling has accurately predicted what the voting population looks like.
From Politico: "FRAUD ALERT. The Hoosier State will also provide an indication of whether the GOP claims of potential voter fraud are hype or a serious threat. Lake County, home of Gary and East Chicago, bungled the count during the May 6 primary, and good-government experts say a slowdown today or widespread allegations of shenanigans could augur serious problems around the country. Other counties with potential problems, according to experts: Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland); Palm Beach County, Fla., yet again; Denver; Richmond, Va."
Jonathan Martin adds: "Watch Marion and Hamilton. Marion, home to Indianapolis, is the largest county in the state and one filled with both African-Americans and moderate whites. Because of this mix, Kerry won here by two percentage points in 2004 en route to losing the state to Bush by about 20 points. Obama will almost certainly take Marion this time, but the question, again, is by how much? Running up a large margin here would offset the losses he's likely to take across southern Indiana. And just north of Marion, keep an eye on fast-growing Hamilton. This has been a Republcian stronghold, and Bush won 74-25. But as in other suburbs filled with newcomers, Obama is showing signs of strength. He's invested significant resources there in an effort to close the '04 gap. If Obama keeps his losses there under 10 percent, Republicans should worry."
NEW HAMPSHIRE - Watch to see how McCain is doing in the southern counties, Rockingham and Hillsbourough (where Manchester is). He needs these counties to win, and he wants to get Bush's 2004 margins - 52%
7:00 PM
INDIANA closes in all areas. Will the networks call it now?
VIRGINIA - the much hyped state for Obama. Obama needs to win this to give creedence to his ground game. GOTV operation should be at its best here for Obama, if we are to believe the hype. Obama should win the cities, Charlottesville, Richmond, Petersburg and in the now infamous northern suburbs surrounding Washington D.C. Watch Virginia Beach county where Obama needs to crack 40% of the vote.
Jonathan Martin of Politico writes, "Watch Fairfax and Newport News. Not only are they the two large localities, but they provide important indicators as to whether a Republican will win statewide. If McCain is only losing blue-trending Fairfax by 10 to 12 points, he'll have a shot to hold Virginia. Bush lost Fairfax by 8 in 2004 en route to carrying Virginia by eight points. Down in Tidewater, Kerry eked out a 4-point victory in Newport News in 2004. Obama is likely to do better in the city this time due to a strong African-American turnout. But what is key is his margin. We'll have a good sense of how much Obama has maximized black turnout, when we see how big his win is here, in a 43% African-American city."
GEORGIA - If Senate candidate Jim Martin (D) closes on Saxby Chambliss (R), then its likely because african-american turnout is huge. Traditionally, the black georgian electorate is 20 - 25% of the total voting population, but this year it has been as high as 30% in early voting. If it goes higher than 30% today, watch the Senate race closely as the Dems could get that 60th seat. But, that likely wouldn't happen right away, as each candidate needs at least 50% to avoid a run off in a month or so.
Jonathan Martin of Politico adds: "Watch DeKalb. Outside of Prince Georges in Maryland, there is no better example of the rise of the new black middle class than in this suburban Atlanta county. Kerry romped here in 2004, winning 73-26, but again watch to see how much he can both increase his margin and grow turnout. About 275,000 people voted in this fast-growing county four years ago. If Obama can shatter Kerry's performance here, a 55% black county, and in other black areas around Atlanta, it would make Georgia competitive."
KENTUCKY - Dems dream of knocking of McConnell. Doesn't look likely, but would be super sweet if it happened.
7:30 PM
OHIO - Man this state sucks (apologies to the Chapple family, who are 'da bomb). It was these douchebags who screwed it up last time (nice work on that, it worked out real well, didn't it?). John Kerry got 450,000 votes out of Cleveland, Obama needs at least that, and big numbers in Columbus and Toledo (go Mud Hens!) to get over the hump in this cesspool of a state. Watch Van Pert county to see if the base will turn out for McCain - Bush got 10,000 votes here in 2004, will McCain get close to that? There is no gay marriage ban on the ballot this time, so repubs can't count on rural homophobia to get victory this time.
NORTH CAROLINA (maybe closing at 8:30) - is in a dead heat according to the polls, but which polling scenario will be right? Is it a model that looks like 2004, or should pollsters be adding in more new voters who are young, african-american, etc. We should get a pretty good idea about the polls from North Carolina (much like Indiana, its in a deadlock). Watch Durham county, home to Duke University, to gauge his youth vote turnout (he needs to get more than what Kerry got here - 75,000 votes). Also, Catawba county in the west will give evidence of how working class whites are voting. No Democrat has gotten more than 37% of the vote here. Will Obama get close?
8:00 PM - OPEN THE FLOODGATES, HERE COMES THE DATA!!!
Journalism Prof Tom Edsall writes: "If McCain wins Pennsylvania while holding Florida and other states carried by George W. Bush in 2004, it's a whole new ball game, and a late night: you will have to wait for returns from Colorado, New Mexico (both 9 PM ET closings) and Nevada (10 PM), to have any real confidence in the outcome. The networks will not go anywhere near calling the race until the polls close on the West Coast at 11 PM. Barring the Pennsylvania-McCain scenario, the odds are that the winner will be known to anyone following the results once the states with 8 PM closings are in."
Politico adds: "SIGN MCCAIN IS IN HOT WATER. If Obama wins any one of the following states: Ohio (7:30 p.m.), Virginia (7 p.m.), North Carolina (7:30 p.m.) or Florida (8 p.m.)."
PENNSYLVANIA - the bellwether is Lackawanna county, which gave 44% to Bush in 2004. Obama needs to beat Kerry's 540,000 votes in Philadelphia.
FLORIDA - Dems have a big registration advantage here (660,000) but will these people actually vote? Watch Orange county and Pinellas county to see which way they will go - both of those counties have been tight in the past, going to the winner of the state overall.
MISSOURI - McCain needs to win in St. Charles County, where Bush got 59%. Obama needs to get more than the 37% Kerry won in Greene county, where the city of Springfield sits. Missouri has a record of picking presidents that’s hard to match, voting for the eventual winner in every election since 1904, with the exception of 1956, when it voted for Adlai Stevenson.
9:00 PM - LOTS OF STATES, AND HERE COMES THE WEST
COLORADO - Watch Arapahoe and Jefferson counties, which usually go repub, but have been getting more and more competitive.
NEW MEXICO - This is the state to gauge the hispanic vote for Obama. Rio Arribe county is nearly 80% Hispanic, and Kerry got 65%, and Clinton got 70% here.
LATE NIGHT INDICATORS:
HOUSE RACES - From Politico:
SIGN OF GOP MELTDOWN IN THE HOUSE (30-PLUS LOSSES). Look out for losses by relatively safe GOP House members such as Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (Mich.) or Rep. Scott Garrett (N.J.) then, later in the evening, Rep. Dan Lungren (Calif.) or Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (Calif.). If several go down, it will be a brutal night for House Republicans. If scandal-scarred Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) ekes out a victory, Republicans are in deep, deep trouble.
BAD, BUT NOT A WORST-CASE HOUSE SCENARIO (20-30 GOP LOSSES). Even if most of the aforementioned Republicans survive, Democrats could have better luck against Reps. John B. Shadegg (R-Ariz.), Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.), Mark Souder (R-Ind.), Sam Graves (R-Mo.), Dean Heller (R-Nev.) Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio), Henry Brown Jr. (R-S.C.), John Culberson (R-Texas), Michael T. McCaul (R-Texas), Virgil H. Goode (R-Va.) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.).
THE LAST OF MODERATES. The extinction of the House GOP in the Northeast will be complete if Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.)
NATIONAL YOUTH VOTE - YOUTHQUAKE. About 47 percent of eligible 18-to-24-year-olds voted in the 2004 election, a slight increase over 2000. Some experts suggest that number could be as a high as 60 percent this year. If exit polls show the youth vote hitting or exceeding that mark, look for a big Obama boost.
ALASKA. If the election is decided by 1 a.m., anyone still awake will be treated to a political nightcap: the result of a tight race between Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, now a convicted felon, and Democrat Mark Begich. The Stevens race isn't the only one worth staying up for — 35-year House GOP veteran Don Young is also struggling to win reelection.
Some of this info is from memory, much of it is gleaned from sources around the web, sometime with citations, sometimes without.
5:00 PM
Media Elite Insiders Get First Look at Exit Polls - In 2004 the purveyors of exit polls didn't do a very good job of preventing leaks to the media. As a result, Democrats became ecstatic over early indications that Kerry was doing better than expected. It turned out the these exit polls had difficulty getting conservatives to participate (or tell the truth) to pollsters who were disproportionally young and female. In 2006 the exit pollers put these people in a locked room, took away their blackberrys and cell phones, and VIOLA! No leaks. Today they get their first briefing at 5 pm, where networks and journalists can begin the process of scouring over the information and deciding how much credibility exit polls merit. By all indications one should be very very skeptical of this data. Watch the drudgereport.com for early leaks.
6:00 PM
INDIANA closes in some areas and networks will start the prediction game. Eastern Indiana should favor McCain and results there come in early. Watch to see when returns from Gary and the Western Suburbs come in - as they have high numbers of working class democrats and a higher african-american population. Also, Kerry won Marion county (Indianapolis) and Obama would have to do the same. Small rural counties in Indiana usually go 3 to 1 for republican candidates. This could also be the first indication of turnout numbers and if this years polling has accurately predicted what the voting population looks like.
From Politico: "FRAUD ALERT. The Hoosier State will also provide an indication of whether the GOP claims of potential voter fraud are hype or a serious threat. Lake County, home of Gary and East Chicago, bungled the count during the May 6 primary, and good-government experts say a slowdown today or widespread allegations of shenanigans could augur serious problems around the country. Other counties with potential problems, according to experts: Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland); Palm Beach County, Fla., yet again; Denver; Richmond, Va."
Jonathan Martin adds: "Watch Marion and Hamilton. Marion, home to Indianapolis, is the largest county in the state and one filled with both African-Americans and moderate whites. Because of this mix, Kerry won here by two percentage points in 2004 en route to losing the state to Bush by about 20 points. Obama will almost certainly take Marion this time, but the question, again, is by how much? Running up a large margin here would offset the losses he's likely to take across southern Indiana. And just north of Marion, keep an eye on fast-growing Hamilton. This has been a Republcian stronghold, and Bush won 74-25. But as in other suburbs filled with newcomers, Obama is showing signs of strength. He's invested significant resources there in an effort to close the '04 gap. If Obama keeps his losses there under 10 percent, Republicans should worry."
NEW HAMPSHIRE - Watch to see how McCain is doing in the southern counties, Rockingham and Hillsbourough (where Manchester is). He needs these counties to win, and he wants to get Bush's 2004 margins - 52%
7:00 PM
INDIANA closes in all areas. Will the networks call it now?
VIRGINIA - the much hyped state for Obama. Obama needs to win this to give creedence to his ground game. GOTV operation should be at its best here for Obama, if we are to believe the hype. Obama should win the cities, Charlottesville, Richmond, Petersburg and in the now infamous northern suburbs surrounding Washington D.C. Watch Virginia Beach county where Obama needs to crack 40% of the vote.
Jonathan Martin of Politico writes, "Watch Fairfax and Newport News. Not only are they the two large localities, but they provide important indicators as to whether a Republican will win statewide. If McCain is only losing blue-trending Fairfax by 10 to 12 points, he'll have a shot to hold Virginia. Bush lost Fairfax by 8 in 2004 en route to carrying Virginia by eight points. Down in Tidewater, Kerry eked out a 4-point victory in Newport News in 2004. Obama is likely to do better in the city this time due to a strong African-American turnout. But what is key is his margin. We'll have a good sense of how much Obama has maximized black turnout, when we see how big his win is here, in a 43% African-American city."
GEORGIA - If Senate candidate Jim Martin (D) closes on Saxby Chambliss (R), then its likely because african-american turnout is huge. Traditionally, the black georgian electorate is 20 - 25% of the total voting population, but this year it has been as high as 30% in early voting. If it goes higher than 30% today, watch the Senate race closely as the Dems could get that 60th seat. But, that likely wouldn't happen right away, as each candidate needs at least 50% to avoid a run off in a month or so.
Jonathan Martin of Politico adds: "Watch DeKalb. Outside of Prince Georges in Maryland, there is no better example of the rise of the new black middle class than in this suburban Atlanta county. Kerry romped here in 2004, winning 73-26, but again watch to see how much he can both increase his margin and grow turnout. About 275,000 people voted in this fast-growing county four years ago. If Obama can shatter Kerry's performance here, a 55% black county, and in other black areas around Atlanta, it would make Georgia competitive."
KENTUCKY - Dems dream of knocking of McConnell. Doesn't look likely, but would be super sweet if it happened.
7:30 PM
OHIO - Man this state sucks (apologies to the Chapple family, who are 'da bomb). It was these douchebags who screwed it up last time (nice work on that, it worked out real well, didn't it?). John Kerry got 450,000 votes out of Cleveland, Obama needs at least that, and big numbers in Columbus and Toledo (go Mud Hens!) to get over the hump in this cesspool of a state. Watch Van Pert county to see if the base will turn out for McCain - Bush got 10,000 votes here in 2004, will McCain get close to that? There is no gay marriage ban on the ballot this time, so repubs can't count on rural homophobia to get victory this time.
NORTH CAROLINA (maybe closing at 8:30) - is in a dead heat according to the polls, but which polling scenario will be right? Is it a model that looks like 2004, or should pollsters be adding in more new voters who are young, african-american, etc. We should get a pretty good idea about the polls from North Carolina (much like Indiana, its in a deadlock). Watch Durham county, home to Duke University, to gauge his youth vote turnout (he needs to get more than what Kerry got here - 75,000 votes). Also, Catawba county in the west will give evidence of how working class whites are voting. No Democrat has gotten more than 37% of the vote here. Will Obama get close?
8:00 PM - OPEN THE FLOODGATES, HERE COMES THE DATA!!!
Journalism Prof Tom Edsall writes: "If McCain wins Pennsylvania while holding Florida and other states carried by George W. Bush in 2004, it's a whole new ball game, and a late night: you will have to wait for returns from Colorado, New Mexico (both 9 PM ET closings) and Nevada (10 PM), to have any real confidence in the outcome. The networks will not go anywhere near calling the race until the polls close on the West Coast at 11 PM. Barring the Pennsylvania-McCain scenario, the odds are that the winner will be known to anyone following the results once the states with 8 PM closings are in."
Politico adds: "SIGN MCCAIN IS IN HOT WATER. If Obama wins any one of the following states: Ohio (7:30 p.m.), Virginia (7 p.m.), North Carolina (7:30 p.m.) or Florida (8 p.m.)."
PENNSYLVANIA - the bellwether is Lackawanna county, which gave 44% to Bush in 2004. Obama needs to beat Kerry's 540,000 votes in Philadelphia.
FLORIDA - Dems have a big registration advantage here (660,000) but will these people actually vote? Watch Orange county and Pinellas county to see which way they will go - both of those counties have been tight in the past, going to the winner of the state overall.
MISSOURI - McCain needs to win in St. Charles County, where Bush got 59%. Obama needs to get more than the 37% Kerry won in Greene county, where the city of Springfield sits. Missouri has a record of picking presidents that’s hard to match, voting for the eventual winner in every election since 1904, with the exception of 1956, when it voted for Adlai Stevenson.
9:00 PM - LOTS OF STATES, AND HERE COMES THE WEST
COLORADO - Watch Arapahoe and Jefferson counties, which usually go repub, but have been getting more and more competitive.
NEW MEXICO - This is the state to gauge the hispanic vote for Obama. Rio Arribe county is nearly 80% Hispanic, and Kerry got 65%, and Clinton got 70% here.
LATE NIGHT INDICATORS:
HOUSE RACES - From Politico:
SIGN OF GOP MELTDOWN IN THE HOUSE (30-PLUS LOSSES). Look out for losses by relatively safe GOP House members such as Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (Mich.) or Rep. Scott Garrett (N.J.) then, later in the evening, Rep. Dan Lungren (Calif.) or Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (Calif.). If several go down, it will be a brutal night for House Republicans. If scandal-scarred Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) ekes out a victory, Republicans are in deep, deep trouble.
BAD, BUT NOT A WORST-CASE HOUSE SCENARIO (20-30 GOP LOSSES). Even if most of the aforementioned Republicans survive, Democrats could have better luck against Reps. John B. Shadegg (R-Ariz.), Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.), Mark Souder (R-Ind.), Sam Graves (R-Mo.), Dean Heller (R-Nev.) Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio), Henry Brown Jr. (R-S.C.), John Culberson (R-Texas), Michael T. McCaul (R-Texas), Virgil H. Goode (R-Va.) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.).
THE LAST OF MODERATES. The extinction of the House GOP in the Northeast will be complete if Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.)
NATIONAL YOUTH VOTE - YOUTHQUAKE. About 47 percent of eligible 18-to-24-year-olds voted in the 2004 election, a slight increase over 2000. Some experts suggest that number could be as a high as 60 percent this year. If exit polls show the youth vote hitting or exceeding that mark, look for a big Obama boost.
ALASKA. If the election is decided by 1 a.m., anyone still awake will be treated to a political nightcap: the result of a tight race between Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, now a convicted felon, and Democrat Mark Begich. The Stevens race isn't the only one worth staying up for — 35-year House GOP veteran Don Young is also struggling to win reelection.
Guides to the Election - Links
Below are the links I have been gathering that attempt to guide voters through the massive amount of tasty if indigestible voting results. By all means, it is tough to figure out what to look for. Below are links with some good info, and I hope to summarize some of the key insights in a post in a couple of minutes. Look at these websites for the insiders scoop, and thanks to Megan Biddinger for pointing me in the right direction. Meg is a media master.http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=672D777B-18FE-70B2-A8D5073709397E3F
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/11/04/polls/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/30/election-results-electora_n_139361.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/11/03/us/politics/20081104_ELECTION_PREVIEW.html
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/04/1633024.aspx
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1108/Where_to_watch_tonight.html
Election Day Euphoria
To say I was euphoric this morning might have been an overstatement. As you can see in the photo, Lynne and I got up this morning pretty early, walked to our polling station by 6:30, and then waited in line until 7:30 to get our votes in. Filled with the democratic spirit, I purchased coffee for the random woman who was standing in the cold morning air with us.
When the polls opened we were ushered down to a crowded basement room in the public library, where our fellow citizens tried to figure out where to stand and what we needed to do. Inevitably, the lines snaked together and election workers struggled to fix the early morning snafus. Eventually we got through the herd, but it took some patience and (for the most part) our fellow Ann-Arborers were in good spirits.
Walking away from the polls I started thinking about what had just happened - how I had, finally, mercifully, after a campaign that lasted a mind-boggling two years, cast my vote for president. Walking home it was still quiet and I had to chance to reflect on my vote and how that felt. I didn't feel euphoria (an emotion that will likely come later tonight, when Senator Obama wins) but it was a powerful and unique feeling. And after thinking about it for a while, I think the best way to describe the feeling was - relief.
Relief that our long national nightmare is nearly over. Relief that I can vote, that I have a powerfully practical way to voice my outrage at the policies of the last eight years. Relief that we won't have to listen to the news and feel like the Bush administration was working to enact a governmental philosophy as unjust as it was exclusive. And relief that our government, our system's best expression of the will of the people, will soon be LESS willing to turn its back on the poorest, most vulnerable, least powerfull members of our society.
At the very least I felt a sense of relief that our elected leaders could no longer try to torture other human beings.
I couldn't help but get choked up. These eight years have been exhaustingly long. Emotionally, I didn't anticipate how CATHARTIC voting would be this year. It didn't feel as exhilarating as it has in the past, but it felt much more important. Tonight, if this election goes how we think it will, we get a chance to celebrate. Its about damn time.
When the polls opened we were ushered down to a crowded basement room in the public library, where our fellow citizens tried to figure out where to stand and what we needed to do. Inevitably, the lines snaked together and election workers struggled to fix the early morning snafus. Eventually we got through the herd, but it took some patience and (for the most part) our fellow Ann-Arborers were in good spirits.
Walking away from the polls I started thinking about what had just happened - how I had, finally, mercifully, after a campaign that lasted a mind-boggling two years, cast my vote for president. Walking home it was still quiet and I had to chance to reflect on my vote and how that felt. I didn't feel euphoria (an emotion that will likely come later tonight, when Senator Obama wins) but it was a powerful and unique feeling. And after thinking about it for a while, I think the best way to describe the feeling was - relief.
Relief that our long national nightmare is nearly over. Relief that I can vote, that I have a powerfully practical way to voice my outrage at the policies of the last eight years. Relief that we won't have to listen to the news and feel like the Bush administration was working to enact a governmental philosophy as unjust as it was exclusive. And relief that our government, our system's best expression of the will of the people, will soon be LESS willing to turn its back on the poorest, most vulnerable, least powerfull members of our society.
At the very least I felt a sense of relief that our elected leaders could no longer try to torture other human beings.
I couldn't help but get choked up. These eight years have been exhaustingly long. Emotionally, I didn't anticipate how CATHARTIC voting would be this year. It didn't feel as exhilarating as it has in the past, but it felt much more important. Tonight, if this election goes how we think it will, we get a chance to celebrate. Its about damn time.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
This is some bullshit
I really can't believe that the Treasury would try something like this. Am I missing something? Why, in the world, is it fair for Banks to shell out public money in dividends to stockholders? Seriously, I just can't see the rationale for this. Can anybody fill me in?
Swing State Predictions - My 2 Cents.
You know, I did pretty well in predicting the VP choices. I nailed the Biden pick, which was pretty easy, I think. And I was close in my pick of Joe Leiberman...which, of course, failed to predict the actual selection of Sarah Palin but nailed the preferred choice of who McCain really wanted to pick - at least according to several sources close to the McCain campaign (his right hand man, Lindsey Graham, for example). I guess I underestimated how badly he needed to consolidate his base. Too bad McCain wasn't more independent, a la McCain 2000. Of course, it is easy to second guess.
Hence, I give you my best predictions for the swing states, one week out:
FL - Obama by 2%
OH - Obama by 4%
PA - Obama by 6%
IN - McCain by 1%
MO - Obama by 1%
NH - Obama by 4%
NV - Obama by 3%
CO - Obama by 5%
MT - McCain by 4%
ND - McCain by 6%
VA - Obama by 4%
NC - Obama by 1%
IA - Obama by 4%
WV - McCain by 6%
GA - McCain by 4%
Obama = 364
Noticeably, I didn't put MI, MN, or WI on those lists, because I think that in the end the Great Lakes states will swing pretty hard for Obama. They, as is true of all states, are big on blue collar voters who will vote 'economy' this cycle - but, unlike southern states, they won't be swayed by last minute ideological arguments by the McCain campaign (Obama is a socialist! Yow!) because they are much more pro-Labor than other states.
DISCLAIMER - The above predictions are based on recent polls - mitigated by my sense of the GOTV (Get Out The Vote) operations on both sides. Republican turnout in early voting states is sluggish (check out the county by county totals for Oregon),
...but I can't discount the fact that Republican micro-targeting efforts delivered for Bush 2004 in major ways. I know evangelicals aren't as excited about McCain, but with Palin on the ticket, and with the ideological nature of the rhetoric in the campaign rallys, I think the base will still show up. The independents, however, are another matter.
I see Independents breaking hard for Obama - because of his polished communication skills, his monetary advantage (which, is disgusting in a democracy!) and because of his relentlessly hopeful message. Of course, the key factor is that the economy is the driving issue - helping Barack Obama. On the Democratic side, despite the optimistic predictions, I remain skeptical about the youth vote and the 'new registrant, first time voter' numbers going as high as some predict. In the past, these people just have never really shown up. I do believe we will see marked increases in both these groups, but I am hesitant to predict a major wave. BUT, if both of these groups do turn out and achieve a bump of 15% or higher, then we could be looking at a sweeping electoral college victory for Obama, perhaps upwards of 390 electoral college votes.
Lastly, I want to reiterate my prediction that Independents will break for Obama, and, most importantly, African Americans will break almost exclusively for Obama and they will turn out in almost unprecedented numbers.
And, if Barack Obama loses, I am going to either shoot myself or become a farmer.
Hence, I give you my best predictions for the swing states, one week out:
FL - Obama by 2%
OH - Obama by 4%
PA - Obama by 6%
IN - McCain by 1%
MO - Obama by 1%
NH - Obama by 4%
NV - Obama by 3%
CO - Obama by 5%
MT - McCain by 4%
ND - McCain by 6%
VA - Obama by 4%
NC - Obama by 1%
IA - Obama by 4%
WV - McCain by 6%
GA - McCain by 4%
Obama = 364
Noticeably, I didn't put MI, MN, or WI on those lists, because I think that in the end the Great Lakes states will swing pretty hard for Obama. They, as is true of all states, are big on blue collar voters who will vote 'economy' this cycle - but, unlike southern states, they won't be swayed by last minute ideological arguments by the McCain campaign (Obama is a socialist! Yow!) because they are much more pro-Labor than other states.
DISCLAIMER - The above predictions are based on recent polls - mitigated by my sense of the GOTV (Get Out The Vote) operations on both sides. Republican turnout in early voting states is sluggish (check out the county by county totals for Oregon),
...but I can't discount the fact that Republican micro-targeting efforts delivered for Bush 2004 in major ways. I know evangelicals aren't as excited about McCain, but with Palin on the ticket, and with the ideological nature of the rhetoric in the campaign rallys, I think the base will still show up. The independents, however, are another matter.
I see Independents breaking hard for Obama - because of his polished communication skills, his monetary advantage (which, is disgusting in a democracy!) and because of his relentlessly hopeful message. Of course, the key factor is that the economy is the driving issue - helping Barack Obama. On the Democratic side, despite the optimistic predictions, I remain skeptical about the youth vote and the 'new registrant, first time voter' numbers going as high as some predict. In the past, these people just have never really shown up. I do believe we will see marked increases in both these groups, but I am hesitant to predict a major wave. BUT, if both of these groups do turn out and achieve a bump of 15% or higher, then we could be looking at a sweeping electoral college victory for Obama, perhaps upwards of 390 electoral college votes.
Lastly, I want to reiterate my prediction that Independents will break for Obama, and, most importantly, African Americans will break almost exclusively for Obama and they will turn out in almost unprecedented numbers.
And, if Barack Obama loses, I am going to either shoot myself or become a farmer.
The Press Corp Going Nuts - A New Reality Show?
So during the last couple of presidential elections I have heard numerous horror stories about how difficult it is to cover a presidential campaign, for months and months on end, only to have the whole thing end quickly and abruptly. Julia Ioffe's article in The New Republic does a good job of highlighting some of the weird social relations that journalists have with each other (not to mention the candidates and the campaign staff) while working, playing, traveling, and eating together for the two years it takes to complete a campaign.
In that documentary film, "Journeys with George," I remember Bush interacting with reporters and acting all flirty with Nancy Pelosi's daughter. In this article, Ryan Lizza intimates that journalists get a little catty and territorial on the Obama Press plane. I think I see a reality show in the making.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Midnight Regulations?
George W. Bush vowed not to push through a series of bureaucratic regulations right before he left office. He said he would forbid his agency heads for signing new or controversial rules and regs after Nov. 1. Will he keep his promise? Will he push through a bunch of crap right before Nov. 1?
On today's Diane Rehm Show her guests noted that Bush's midnight regs are about weakening the Endangered Species Act, less regs on workplace safety in the Labor Department, and some concerning protecting doctors who refuse to perform abortions.
So keep an eye out for sketchy rule changes.
On today's Diane Rehm Show her guests noted that Bush's midnight regs are about weakening the Endangered Species Act, less regs on workplace safety in the Labor Department, and some concerning protecting doctors who refuse to perform abortions.
So keep an eye out for sketchy rule changes.
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